Housing Market

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home prices from S&P Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency; data on pending home sales and sales of new homes were also released. The University of Michigan released its final February reading on consumer sentiment and weekly reports on average mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Price Growth Expected to Slow in 2022

December readings from S&P Case Shiller suggested a slowing pace of home price growth in 2022 but analysts said that home prices are not expected to decrease. Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index showed an 18.80 percent increase in home prices year-over-year. S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index reported that Phoenix, Arizona held on to its first-place standing for home price growth with home prices increasing by 32.50 percent year-over-year. Tampa, Florida home prices rose by 29.40 percent, and the Miami, Florida metro area reported home price growth of 27.30 percent. Analysts expect that home prices will continue to rise, but not at the extreme pace seen in 2021.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees properties owned and financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported year-over-year home price growth of 17.60 percent as of December. Analysts said that January’s bad weather, rising mortgage rates, and continued impacts of  Covid-19 and its variants decreased sales of new homes by 9.30 percent in January. The National Association of Realtors® reported supplies of available homes were in the normal range with a 6.1-month supply of homes available. A six-month supply of available homes is considered an average inventory.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported lower average rates for fixed-rate mortgages as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by three basis points to 3.89 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped one basis point to an average of 3.14 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages were unchanged at 2.98 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.70 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

Initial jobless claims were lower last week with 232,000 new claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 249,000 initial claims filed. Analysts expected 235,000 new jobless claims to be filed last week. 1.48 million continuing jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 1.59 million continuing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reading includes data on construction spending, public and private sector jobs, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

While U.S. home prices grew at record speed in December, rising mortgage rates threatened rapid price appreciation as buyers were sidelined by affordability concerns. S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index reported 18.80 percent year-over-year home price growth in December.

The 20-City Home Price Index posted a year-over-year gain of 18.60 percent as compared to November’s year-over-year home price gain of 18.30 percent. Home prices rose by 1.50 percent from November to December 2020. Phoenix, Arizona held on to first place in the 20-City Index with year-over-year home price growth of 32.50 percent; Tampa, Florida held second place with 29.40 percent year-over-year home price growth. The Miami, Florida metro area held third place with year-over-year home price growth of 27.30 percent.

Rising Mortgage Rates Impact Affordability for Prospective Homebuyers

Analysts predicted slowing home price growth as mortgage rates rise and affordability issues impact prospective home buyers. Danielle Hale, a chief economist at Realtor.com, said: “Home prices continued to surpass expectations in December, but a marked change may be ahead for growth as rising mortgage rates eat into buyers’ purchasing power.”

Ms. Hale described a trend that could signal slower home price growth. “While typical asking prices continue to accelerate, the pace of median sales price growth has slowed, signaling a potential gap between what buyers are willing and able to pay and what sellers are hoping to receive.”

The quarterly report issued by the Federal Housing Finance Agency supported trends evident in the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. Prices for homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 17.50 percent year-over-year in December. The FHFA reported the strongest home price growth in Arizona, Utah, and Idaho during the fourth quarter of 2021.

The strongest state housing markets for  FHFA were Arizona, Utah, and Idaho, while the weakest housing markets were in Washington, DC, Louisiana, and North Dakota. Homebuyers continued to seek homes in less congested suburban and rural areas due to rising home prices. This trend originally started as Covid-19 outbreaks and work-from-home opportunities prompted city dwellers to relocate to areas less affected by the virus.

Analysts recognized that rising home prices sidelined moderate-income and first-time homebuyers, but did not expect home prices to fall in the coming months.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reported slower home price growth in November. Rising mortgage rates and high home prices sidelined first-time and moderate-income buyers and investors who fear buying at the peak of today’s housing markets only to face lower home values when home prices cool off.

November’s National Home Price Index reported a year-over-year gain of 18.80 percent in home prices year-over-year. The 20-City Home Price Index, which, real estate pros frequently use to estimate home pricing trends, reported that U.S. home prices rose 18.30 percent year-over-year in November.

20-City Home Price Index: Arizona and Florida Post Top Gains in Home Prices

Home prices in the Phoenix, Arizona metro area rose by 32.2 percent year-over-year in November. Tampa, Florida followed with year-over-year home price growth of 29.0 percent. Miami, Florida held third place in the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index with year-over-year home price growth of 26.6 percent.

The covid pandemic influenced home buying trends in multiple ways. Closures of workspaces, loss of childcare options and local restrictions and regulations designed to prevent the spread of covid caused many people to seek alternatives to commuting to work. Working from home allowed homeowners to transition from daily commutes to work to buying bigger homes to accommodate changing family and work needs.

Covid influenced many home buyers to look for homes in less-congested metro areas; Metro areas in the mountain west have grown as buyers from congested coastal metro areas bought homes in less populated areas in states including Arizona, Colorado, and Idaho.

Rising Home Prices and Mortgage Rates Impact Affordability

Rapidly rising home prices, buyer competition, and higher mortgage rates continued to challenge first-time and moderate-income home buyers, but demand for homes remains high. Analysts expect high demand and short supplies of available homes will continue to dominate housing markets in 2022.

The Naples, Florida metro area held first place in a survey of emerging housing markets; the North-Port, Sarasota, and Bradenton, Florida metro areas held second place in emerging markets. International buyers and vacation rentals are driving home sales as covid-related travel restrictions are lifted.

Metro areas including Raleigh, North Carolina, and Fort Wayne, Indiana held their own among popular vacation destinations. Foreign-born home buyers are returning to U.S. housing markets from covid-related travel restrictions. Danielle Hale, the chief economist at Realtor.com, said: “The idea that people are traveling more and that borders are a little bit more open than they were gives  international buyers the confidence to get [into the housing market.] We do see an increase in international shopping within a lot of these areas.”

Emerging real estate markets and recovery of formerly stable housing markets indicate that the worst effects of the pandemic are easing but the quick spread of covid’s omicron variant suggests that complete economic recovery from the pandemic is a gradual process.