Jobless Claims

The previous week offered a blend of economic updates, encompassing data on inflation trends, the pulse of consumer sentiment, and the weekly oscillations in mortgage rates and unemployment claims.

August Sees a Slight Upward Trend in Inflation

The latest data on monthly inflation was made public on September 13th, revealing that core inflation in August experienced a jump of 0.3 percent over its July reading. This number is a tad above the anticipated 0.2 percent and also overshadows July’s reading, which was set at 0.2 percent relative to the preceding month. Drawing from the Consumer Price Index, August witnessed a year-over-year inflation of 3.7 percent.

In a broader perspective, the inflation rate observed a 2.4 percent increase in the past quarter when compared to the same timeframe a year ago. This is a downward shift from the 5.0 percent recorded in the previous quarter and marks the most modest inflation rate since March of 2021. As September progresses, all attention will turn to the Federal Reserve’s impending meeting. Given that the current inflation is above the Fed’s target of 2.0 percent, speculations are circulating about whether an interest rate rise is on the horizon or if the existing rate adjustments will be given more time to work.

A Shift in Mortgage Rates and Employment Dynamics

The current 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovers around 7.51 percent, one of the highest rates seen in two decades. This is an upward jump from August, where the rates averaged at 7.18 percent. This trend is impacting potential homeowners. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands close to 6.51 percent, mirroring August’s average, which rounded off at 6.55 percent.

Comparing the current mortgage figures to those of the previous week, there’s been a marginal decline in the 30-year fixed rate from 7.55 percent to 7.51 percent. The 15-year fixed rate remains relatively stable at 6.51 percent, with the past week’s average being 6.52 percent. These rising interest rates seem to be impacting in the broader economy, with a projected 6.4 million individuals unemployed, translating to a 3.8 percent rate. The US Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor and Statistics pinpointed 1.8 million claims for unemployment benefits in August.

Consumer Sentiment: A Mild Dip

The University of Michigan released its consumer sentiment report for the month, showing a slight drop in consumer optimism. While August’s index stood at 69.5, September witnessed a dip, bringing it down to 67.7.

This dip implies that despite the decreasing inflation rates, there remains a cloud of uncertainty amongst consumers. This could be attributed to potential interest rate hikes and a subtle slowing down of the job market. The prevailing mood is still optimistic, but the trend is shifting.

Looking Forward

The next week promises updates on mortgage rates, while September 20th is the Federal Reserve’s next meeting. The focal point for many will be the Fed’s decision on the interest rates—whether they opt for another raise or choose to hold them steady for the upcoming period.

Last week’s scheduled economic reporting was limited due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday on Monday. The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book report and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Report

The Beige Book report is a summary of information supplied to Federal Reserve policymakers by their business and professional contacts. Highlights of September’s Beige Book report included:

• Accelerated leisure spending by consumers boosted economic growth during July and August.

• Non-essential retail sales slowed, but the economy was boosted by a final stage of post-COVID-19 pent-up demand.

• Prices for consumer goods fell faster than in many other sectors.

• Auto sales rose due to better inventories available to consumers but increased sales were not connected with rising consumer demand for vehicles.

• Rising business costs reduced profit margins.

The Beige Book report is published eight times a year before scheduled meetings of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week; rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 7.12 percent and were six basis points lower than in the previous week. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were three basis points lower and averaged 6.52 percent.

Initial jobless claims were lower with 216,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 229,000 initial jobless claims filed. Analysts expected a reading of 230,000 new jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on inflation, U.S. retail sales, and the preliminary monthly report on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, consumer sentiment, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Inflation Rate Holds Steady in July

Month-to-month inflation rose at a pace of 0.20 percent in July and met analysts’ expectations. There was no change in the pace of month-to-month inflation from June’s reading of 0.20 percent growth. The Consumer Price Index also reported that year-over-year inflation reached 9.10 percent, which was the highest reading since reaching a 40-year high in mid-2022.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, was unchanged from June’s month-to-month pace of 0.20 percent growth. July’s month-to-month reading matched analysts’ expectations. Year-over-year core inflation dipped slightly to 4.70 percent in July as compared to June’s reading of 4.80 percent year-over-year inflation.

Federal Reserve leaders said that they would continue monitoring domestic and global economic developments along with financial and economic data before determining whether or not to raise the Fed’s key interest rate range.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates for the third consecutive week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage approached seven percent and rose by six basis points to 6.96 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by nine basis points to 6.34 percent.

248,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week, which surpassed expectations of 231,000 new claims filed and the previous week’s reading of 227,000 first-tine jobless claims filed.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey

In other news, the University of Michigan released its monthly preliminary reading on U.S. consumer sentiment.

Consumer sentiment rose to an index reading of 72.0 in August as compared to the July reading of 71.6.  The majority of.consumers surveyed indicated that the economy improved in the three months leading up to the survey., Component readings included consumer sentiment index readings for current economic conditions and economic conditions within the next six months. The survey reading for consumer sentiment about economic conditions over the next six months fell to an index reading of  67.3 from the July reading of 68.3 Readings over 50 indicate that most consumers are confident about current economic conditions.

Joanne Hsu, the University of Michigan’s director of consumer surveys, said: “…In general, consumers perceived few differences in the economic environment from last month, but they saw substantial improvement relative to just three months ago.”

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes reading on housing starts and building permits issued, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.