Jobless Claims

While Consumer Sentiment has inched up slightly, Consumer Credit tells a different story. Credit usage has continued to rise, suggesting increased financial strain on consumers amid ongoing economic pressures such as inflation. Although another rate cut is still expected, its likelihood remains uncertain under the current administration.

Consumer Sentiment
Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged, inching up less than one index point from last month and sitting about 20% below January 2025. Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings.

Consumer Credit
In 2025, consumer credit increased 2.4 percent, with revolving and nonrevolving credit increasing 3.4 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively. During the fourth quarter, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.0 percent, while in December it increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.7 percent.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with the current rate at 5.50%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with the current rate at 6.11%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.04%, with current rates at 5.75%
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.04%, with current rates at 5.77%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 231,000 compared to the expected claims of 212,000. The prior week landed at 209,000.

What’s Ahead
GDP Estimates and PCE Index Inflation Data is set to release next week as the largest data releases.

While many were optimistic about an additional rate cut, the Federal Reserve has decided to maintain current interest rates pending further data. They have previously stated that at least one more rate cut would follow the last one, but their stance now appears to depend on the availability of sufficient supporting data.

Recent Core PPI reports have also been released, and the data conflicted with earlier CPI and non-core PPI reports. The reports showed that inflation for producers along major production pathways has increased more than expected. This is likely to result in a noticeable increase in wholesale prices across the board.

Additionally, despite the policy intentions behind the tariffs, the trade deficit has remained firmly elevated amid recent policy changes. It is unlikely that even more significant tariff adjustments will lead to a narrowing of the trade deficit. Consumer confidence has also declined for another consecutive week, despite the economy continuing to show signs of strength.

Core PPI
The cost of wholesale goods and services rose sharply at the end of last year, underscoring that the battle against inflation is far from over as President Donald Trump names his pick for chair of the Federal Reserve. Producer prices jumped 0.5% in December, an index published by the government showed. The report was delayed by the government shutdown last fall.

Trade Deficit
The trade deficit fell a few months ago to a 16-year low, but it was fool’s gold. The U.S. is still running a trade gap near historically high levels. In November, the deficit almost doubled to $56.8 billion from just $29.2 billion in October.

Consumer Confidence
The stock market keeps hitting record highs, unemployment is low and the economy is growing surprisingly fast, but Americans were in a foul mood as the new year got under way. A long-running survey of consumer confidence fell in January to a 12-year low, dipping below even the worst readings during the pandemic.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05%, with the current rate at 5.49%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with the current rate at 6.10%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.06%, with current rates at 5.79%
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.06%, with current rates at 5.81%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 209,000 compared to the expected claims of 205,000. The prior week landed at 210,000.

What’s Ahead
Unemployment Data, Consumer Credit, and U.S. Hourly Wages are set to release next week, with an additional Consumer Sentiment report by the Univ. of Michigan.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index — released under delayed conditions, but it was within expectations. Next week will be another Federal Reserve Rate Decision, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates at least one more time. The optimism among the broader market has been showing that multiple sectors that seem unphased by the administrative decisions and current political climate. 

PCE Index
The PCE Index came in at 2.8% in November on an annualized basis. According to data from the Commerce Department, core PCE, which excludes food and energy, also stood at 2.8% on an annual basis. It rose 0.2% over the previous month.

GDP
The economy expanded at a zippy 4.4% annual pace in the third quarter of 2025, an updated estimate showed, to keep the U.S. on track to score the fifth straight year of above-average growth. Gross domestic product, the official scorecard of the economy, was revised up from the original 4.3% reading, the government said Thursday. It was the strongest quarter of growth in two years.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06%, with the current rate at 5.44%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03%, with the current rate at 6.09%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.10%, with current rates at 5.85%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.10%, with current rates at 5.87%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 200,000 compared to the expected claims of 208,000. The prior week landed at 199,000.

What’s Ahead
The FOMC Rate Decision and delayed Core PPI data will be the largest items for the upcoming week.