Mortgage Rates

With the Federal Reserve meeting now concluded, and the board has decided to maintain current interest rates. However, attention remains focused on the potential for rate hikes at the next meeting. While inflation has continued to decline on a month-to-month basis, the overall year-over-year inflation rate remains well above the Federal Reserve’s target.

The PCE Index came in within expectations and has remained largely flat for the first time since the pandemic. Even so, inflation remains a significant challenge overall, as consumers continue to feel the effects of higher fuel and energy prices, along with rising household costs. Personal income data also indicates that wage growth has not kept pace with inflation.

PCE Index
The personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, index dipped 0.1% last month, the government said Thursday, to mark the first decline since 2020. Lower oil prices following a temporary truce with Iran were the chief source of falling prices.

Personal Income
Consumer spending rose again in June to cap off a strong second quarter, but households had to dig deep into their savings to pay for their purchases after a recent surge in inflation. Personal spending rose a modest 0.3% last month, the government said, but it followed even bigger increases in both May and April.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08%, bringing the current rate to 6.04%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08%, bringing the current rate to 6.66%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.03%, with current rate at 6.34%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.03%, with current rate at 6.36%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 197,000 compared to the expected claims of 200,000. The previous week landed at 187,000.

What’s Ahead
U.S. Trade Balance, U.S. hourly wages and employment data, and consumer credit figures will be released next week. However, it is unlikely that these reports will have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision.

The PCE Index inflation data is expected to come in lower this week than the previous month’s reading. With the Federal Reserve’s rate decision set to arrive soon, the prior week was relatively light in terms of economic data.

Despite inflation continuing to trend lower, this is unlikely to have an impact on the rate decision later this week. However, it will likely spark further discussion about the current state of the economy. Although inflation remains persistent, there have also been several encouraging developments.

Economic Indicators
The US Leading Economic Index decreased by 0.2% in June 2026, driven by weak consumer expectations and lower building permits. You can read the full report details from The Conference Board regarding the index update.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03%, bringing the current rate to 5.96%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03%, bringing the current rate to 6.58%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.12%, with current rate at 6.37%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.12%, with current rate at 6.39%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 187,000 compared to the expected claims of 212,000. The previous week landed at 209,000.

What’s Ahead
Key economic releases include the FOMC rate decision, the PCE Index, annual GDP data, and additional consumer sentiment reports.

Inflation has shown signs of easing for the first time since the early days of the COVID pandemic. However, inflation remains higher than anticipated. Both the PPI and CPI data releases came in lower than expected, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be beginning to moderate. This is based on the newer, more theoretical reporting for the PPI and CPI.

It is unlikely this will cause any significant change in stance by the Federal Reserve, as it still prefers the PCE Index as its preferred inflation indicator. In addition, prices remain elevated for the average consumer, creating pressure across many sectors. With the Fed’s rate decision next week, we are unlikely to see any changes.

Producer Price Index
Wholesale prices fell in June for the first time in 10 months, largely due to lower gas prices, but it is unclear whether the recent slowdown in inflation will persist in light of renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. The producer-price index dropped 0.3% in June, the government said Wednesday, following a similar decline in the prices consumers paid.

Consumer Price Index
The cost of living fell in June for the first time in six years thanks to plunging gas prices, but the U.S.’s battle against high inflation is far from over. The consumer-price index sank 0.4% last month to mark the first drop since May 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic was in its early months and raging globally. The CPI decline was twice as large as Wall Street had forecast.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.11%, bringing the current rate to 5.93%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06%, bringing the current rate to 6.55%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.04%, with current rate at 6.25%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.03%, with current rate at 6.26%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 208,000 compared to the expected claims of 218,000. The previous week landed at 218,000.

What’s Ahead
The FOMC rate decision, the PCE Index, GDP data, and the Consumer Sentiment report.