Mortgage Rates

With the inflation reports showing their cards, the Consumer Price Index has shown to be in line with expectations, but unexpectedly the Producer Price Index has come in substantially higher than expected.

This may indicate that future core cost increases are headed for consumers, as rising costs are passed through producers and businesses down to the customer level.

This is somewhat offset by Consumer Sentiment having risen, breaking a three-month downward trend. Largely due to the deal with Iran that took place this weekend, there appears to be considerable optimism that fuel prices will return to previous norms. This makes it very unlikely that the Federal Reserve will adjust rates either up or down in the coming week.

Consumer Price Index
The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 4.2%, both in line with expectations. The core CPI accelerated 0.2% for the month and 2.9% from a year ago. While the annual rate was in line with the forecast, the monthly gain was below the 0.3% estimate.

Producer Price Index
The producer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in May, putting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate at 6.5%, the highest since November 2022. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PPI accelerated 0.4%, compared with the consensus view of 0.5%, indicating that rising fuel prices are causing much of the inflationary burden. 

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05%, bringing the current rate to 5.84%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.04%, bringing the current rate to 6.52%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a -0.04% decrease, with current rate at 6.14%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a -0.03% decrease, with current rate at 6.16%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 229,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The previous week landed at 225,000.

What’s Ahead
A lighter release week ahead, with only the Federal Reserve Rate Decision on the horizon.

Unemployment data has been released, revealing an interesting trend: different demographic groups are facing varying, and in some cases significantly higher, levels of unemployment.

While the overall unemployment rate has remained steady at 4.3%, some demographics are experiencing substantially higher unemployment within their respective fields. This comes alongside hourly wage reports which have met the expected growth level for this month.

Historically, however, wage growth has been offset by inflation rising at a much faster pace. As a result, many Americans have found the cost of living increasingly difficult to manage as they attempt to economize and cope with rising fuel, energy, and consumer goods costs.

Unemployment Reports
Unemployment rates for every major group: The lowest is 3.2%, the highest 14.7% The U.S. unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% in May for the third month in a row, but different groups face different challenges finding a job or keeping one. 

U.S. Hourly Wages
Inflation surged throughout the U.S. economy in late April and May, forcing Americans to try to quickly adjust to a new phase of reduced spending power, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest report on economic conditions around the country, known as the “beige book.” Affordability pressures due to higher energy prices from the war with Iran led to a widening gap between spending across income groups.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02%, bringing the current rate to 5.79%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.05%, bringing the current rate to 6.48%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a 0.08% increase, with current rate at 6.18%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a 0.07% increase, with current rate at 6.19%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 225,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The previous week landed at 215,000.

What’s Ahead
Attention now turns to the upcoming CPI and PPI reports, which will offer fresh insight into inflation trends.