Author: Mike Pfefferman

With lofty expectations, the CPI delivered a lower-than-expected inflation increase, leading to a positive uptake across many lending partners and markets. However, the PPI was on the opposite end of that, with a higher-than-expected inflation rate increase, muting the positive response from the CPI data release.

The outlook for a rate cut this year has changed, making the potential for it highly likely. Even Jerome Powell, who usually has a more hawkish response regarding rate cuts, is now leaving some room for this possibility. With the outlooks in favor of a rate cut, we’re seeing the impact across many markets as the potential change for rates is reduced long term.

Consumer Price Index

The cost of consumer goods and services fell in June for the first time since the pandemic in 2020, affirming a recent slowdown in inflation that could impel the Federal Reserve to cut high U.S. interest rates in the next few months. The Consumer Price Index fell 0.1% last month after no change in May, the government said Thursday. That’s the first drop since May 2020 at the height of the pandemic when the economy was mostly shut down.

Producer Price Index

Wholesale costs rose slightly faster than expected in June, but not enough to counter a recent string of reports showing inflation has slowed again. The Producer Price Index advanced 0.2% last month, the government said Friday. That was a touch faster than Wall Street’s 0.1% forecast.

Consumer Credit

Total consumer credit rose $11.3 billion in May, up from a $6.5 billion gain in the prior month, the Federal Reserve said Monday. Economists had been expecting a $8 billion gain, according to a Wall Street Journal survey. The rise in May translates into a 2.7% annual rate, stronger than the 1.5% rise in the prior month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.08% with the current rate at 6.17%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.06% with the current rate at 6.89%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a decrease by -0.25% for this week. Current rates at 6.25%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a decrease by -0.26% for this week. Current rates at 6.26%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 222,000 compared to the expected claims of 236,000. The prior week landed at 239,000.

What’s Ahead

Proceeding reports after the inflation data releases are, as expected, having a very light release schedule. The only notable release are the retail sales reports which indicate how much consumers have leveraged their purchasing power in the last quarter.

With lofty expectations, the CPI delivered a lower-than-expected inflation increase, leading to a positive uptake across many lending partners and markets. However, the PPI was on the opposite end of that, with a higher-than-expected inflation rate increase, muting the positive response from the CPI data release.

The outlook for a rate cut this year has changed, making the potential for it highly likely. Even Jerome Powell, who usually has a more hawkish response regarding rate cuts, is now leaving some room for this possibility. With the outlooks in favor of a rate cut, we’re seeing the impact across many markets as the potential change for rates is reduced long term.

Consumer Price Index

The cost of consumer goods and services fell in June for the first time since the pandemic in 2020, affirming a recent slowdown in inflation that could impel the Federal Reserve to cut high U.S. interest rates in the next few months. The Consumer Price Index fell 0.1% last month after no change in May, the government said Thursday. That’s the first drop since May 2020 at the height of the pandemic when the economy was mostly shut down.

Producer Price Index

Wholesale costs rose slightly faster than expected in June, but not enough to counter a recent string of reports showing inflation has slowed again. The Producer Price Index advanced 0.2% last month, the government said Friday. That was a touch faster than Wall Street’s 0.1% forecast.

Consumer Credit

Total consumer credit rose $11.3 billion in May, up from a $6.5 billion gain in the prior month, the Federal Reserve said Monday. Economists had been expecting a $8 billion gain, according to a Wall Street Journal survey. The rise in May translates into a 2.7% annual rate, stronger than the 1.5% rise in the prior month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.08% with the current rate at 6.17%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.06% with the current rate at 6.89%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a decrease by -0.25% for this week. Current rates at 6.25%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a decrease by -0.26% for this week. Current rates at 6.26%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 222,000 compared to the expected claims of 236,000. The prior week landed at 239,000.

What’s Ahead

Proceeding reports after the inflation data releases are, as expected, having a very light release schedule. The only notable release are the retail sales reports which indicate how much consumers have leveraged their purchasing power in the last quarter.