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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 3rd, 2025

The PCE Index has aligned with expectations, and as the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, it eases the sense of urgency for policy action. GDP data has also indicated continued economic growth, though this is tempered by future forecasts predicting a potential economic contraction. This outlook is further reflected in the Consumer Confidence report, which has shown a significant decline since the change in administration. Uncertainty is evident across lending and broader markets, affecting all aspects of the economy.

PCE Index

The Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE index rose by 0.3% last month, according to government data released on Friday. This increase matched the forecasts of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Year-over-year inflation edged down slightly to 2.5% from 2.6%, but it remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

GDP

An early look at the first quarter points to a somewhat similar rate of growth in the 2% to 2.5% range. However, a severe cold snap in January and a post-holiday lull in economic activity could weigh on GDP.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence, which surged to a post-election high after Donald Trump’s victory, has faded as the public adjusts to major shifts in U.S. economic policies, including trade and tariffs. In February, the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index fell by 7.0 points to 98.3, an eight-month low.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% with the current rate at 5.94%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% with the current rate at 6.76%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.13% for this week. Current rates at 6.12%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.13% for this week. Current rates at 6.15%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 242,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 220,000.

What’s Ahead

This round of job data should be particularly insightful as the first quarter of the year comes into focus. Additionally, Manufacturing PMI and the U.S. trade deficit stand out as unusually strong data points following the recent change in administration.

How the Purchase and Refinance Mortgage Process Works

When it comes to home financing, purchasing and refinancing a mortgage share similarities but serve distinct purposes. Understanding how each process works can help you make informed decisions about homeownership and financial planning.

The Purchase Mortgage Process

Buying a home starts with assessing your budget. Before house hunting, it’s crucial to determine how much you can afford by evaluating your income, expenses, and existing debts. Getting pre-approved for a mortgage will give you a clear picture of your budget and strengthen your offer when you find the right home.

Once you identify the perfect property, you make an offer, which includes price and contingencies such as inspections and financing approval. If the seller accepts, you apply for a mortgage by providing documentation on your income, assets, and credit history. After approval, you attend a closing to finalize the sale, sign paperwork, and pay closing costs.

The Refinance Mortgage Process

Refinancing replaces your current mortgage with a new one, typically to achieve lower monthly payments, adjust the loan term, or tap into home equity. The process begins by setting clear financial goals—whether you want to secure a lower interest rate or access cash for major expenses.

Similar to purchasing, refinancing requires documentation on income, assets, and credit history. After gathering this information, you compare lenders to find the best refinance option. Once you select a lender, you submit a loan application, undergo an appraisal if necessary, and finalize the new loan at closing, paying any applicable closing costs.

Key Differences Between Purchase and Refinance

While purchasing involves acquiring a property, refinancing is about optimizing an existing loan. The purchase process depends on market conditions and property availability, whereas refinancing is often driven by financial goals and interest rate trends. Additionally, refinancing tends to have lower closing costs than a home purchase.

Both processes require careful planning and the guidance of a trusted lender. Whether you’re buying your dream home or refinancing for better terms, understanding these steps ensures a smooth and beneficial mortgage experience.

The Key Details About Home Appraisals That You Might Not Know

A home appraisal is a critical step in the buying, selling, or refinancing process, yet many people don’t fully understand how it works or what factors influence it. Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or homeowner looking to refinance, here are some key details about home appraisals that you might not know.

1. Appraisals Are Different from Home Inspections

Many people confuse appraisals with home inspections. While both assess the condition of a home, an appraisal determines the home’s fair market value, whereas an inspection focuses on identifying potential issues or necessary repairs. Lenders require appraisals to ensure the loan amount aligns with the property’s worth.

2. Appraisers Use a Comparable Sales Approach

To determine a home’s value, appraisers analyze recent sales of similar homes in the area (comps). Factors like square footage, location, upgrades, and market trends play a role. If there aren’t enough comparable sales, the appraisal may be based on a cost or income approach instead.

3. A Low Appraisal Can Impact Your Loan

If an appraisal comes in lower than the agreed purchase price, buyers may have to renegotiate with the seller, pay the difference out of pocket, or walk away from the deal. For refinancing, a low appraisal can mean you won’t qualify for the loan amount you need.

4. Homeowners Can Boost Their Appraisal Value

Small improvements, such as fresh paint, minor repairs, and enhanced curb appeal, can positively impact an appraisal. While appraisers focus on objective factors, a well-maintained home with modern upgrades can make a difference in perceived value.

5. You Can Challenge an Appraisal

If you believe an appraisal is inaccurate, you can dispute it. Providing additional comparable sales data or pointing out overlooked features can sometimes lead to a revised valuation. However, the process requires solid evidence and lender approval.

6. Market Conditions Influence Appraisals

Appraisals are affected by local market trends. In a seller’s market, rising home prices can lead to appraisal gaps, while in a buyer’s market, lower demand may result in more conservative valuations. Staying informed about market conditions can help set realistic expectations.

Understanding the Appraisal Process

Home appraisals play a crucial role in real estate transactions. Whether buying, selling, or refinancing, knowing how appraisals work can help you navigate the process more effectively and avoid surprises.

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