Financial Report

Inflation reports have shown their cards, and they have come in line with expectations. These newer reports rely on less data from sources overall, which is why the PCE Index remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator—and that distinction is even more relevant now.

Despite inflation coming in as expected, consumers are still feeling the steady pressure of price increases that are not keeping pace with wage growth. This is also consistent with what the PPI has shown, indicating that manufacturers are experiencing persistent inflationary pressure as well, though still in line with expectations. The Federal Reserve is still expected to reduce rates one more time heading into the new year.

Consumer Price Index
Inflation remained steady, with the December 2025 year-over-year CPI at 2.7%, matching November, while core CPI (excluding food/energy) was slightly lower at 2.6%, suggesting easing underlying pressures but with persistent shelter costs as the main driver. Month-over-month, CPI rose 0.3%, driven by food and shelter, though energy saw smaller gains and used cars declined, indicating a mixed but generally stable trend.

Producer Price Index
The cost of wholesale goods and services rose during the government shutdown and showed the persistence of inflation pressures in the guts of the U.S. economy. A combined report on producer prices showed a 0.2% increase in November and a 0.1% rise in October, the government said. The two months were combined into one report due to the recent federal shutdown.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08%, with the current rate at 5.38%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.10%, with the current rate at 6.06%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.06%, with current rates at 5.75%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.07%, with current rates at 5.77%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 198,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 207,000.

What’s Ahead
Another FOMC Rate Decision for next week as well as some of the delayed Core PPI inflationary data.

The trade deficit dropped significantly this month, resulting in the smallest gap in the last 16 years. This has been entirely driven by the ongoing gold rush and, to a much less impactful degree, businesses working their way around high tariffs. The unemployment reports, however, have shed another light, showing a steady trend of unemployment rising and reaching a four-year high as of last week.

This is somewhat offset by consumer sentiment, which showed a slightly positive increase alongside relative improvements in the economy. All in all, the data points to mixed results for the broader market. The upcoming week will be a much greater indicator, with all major inflation reports in the PPI and CPI scheduled for release.

Trade Deficit

The U.S. trade deficit plummeted 39% in October to reach the lowest level in 16 years, but the steep drop stemmed from an ongoing gold rush of sorts as well as efforts by businesses to work around high tariffs. The trade gap shrank to $29.4 billion in October from $48.1 billion in September, the government said Thursday. The October report was delayed by the federal shutdown.

Consumer Sentiment

The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment rose to 54 in a preliminary January reading from 52.9 in the prior month. This marked the second straight gain and the highest level of sentiment since September. “Consumers perceived some modest improvement in the economy,” the survey found, although sentiment remains nearly 25% below last January’s reading.

Jobs Report

The unemployment rate climbed to a four-year high of 4.6%, according to a mostly tepid November jobs report. The economy lost 105,000 jobs in October and added 64,000 new jobs in November, the government said, with the report skewed by deferred resignations of federal workers.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02%, with the current rate at 5.46%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with the current rate at 6.16%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.16%, with current rates at 5.69%
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.17%, with current rates at 5.70%

Jobless Claims

Initial claims were reported at 208,000 compared to expected claims of 210,000. The prior week’s total was 200,000.

What’s Ahead

CPI and PPI inflation reports are the major releases for next week, along with the usual employment data.

With the only notable item on the schedule being the release of the Federal Reserve minutes, which reflect the current stance of the Fed, virtually nothing has changed since the last rate cut. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its wait-and-see approach.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.06% with the current rate at 5.44%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% with the current rate at 6.15%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 5.85%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 5.87%

Jobless Claims

No release of data due to the holidays.

What’s Ahead

The upcoming week will feature the usual data releases, with the major ones being the Trade Deficit, Consumer Credit, and Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan.