17
Jul
By support
Market Outlook

NAHB: Home Builder Confidence Holds Steady

NAHB Home Builder Confidence Holds SteadyHome builder confidence remained steady at the highest reading in almost ten years according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for July. The latest reading of 60 for the index was identical to expectations and June’s reading, which was revised to 60 from an initial reading of 59. The NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is based on readings of zero to 100 with readings over 50 indicating that a majority of home builders surveyed are confident about housing market conditions. July’s reading was the 13th consecutive month of readings above 50.

July’s Housing Market Index Highest Since November 2005

NAHB chief economist David Crowe said that July’s reading is consistent with stronger markets for new and existing homes as well as job growth, but also noted builder concerns over obtaining lots for development and necessary labor at favorable prices.

The monthly reading for housing market condition is based on three components. Two components showed improvement with the reading for current market conditions up one point to 66; the reading for housing market conditions in the next six months gained two points for a reading of 72 and the reading for buyer foot traffic in new housing developments lost one point for a reading of 63.

Report Details Regional Market Conditions

NAHB’s three month moving average of regional builder confidence showed gains of one point in the South for a reading of 61; the Midwest also reported a gain of one point to 55. Builder confidence readings for the Northeast and West each gained three points to readings of 47 and 60 respectively.

NAHB chairman Tom Woods said that based on current readings, housing markets should continue to improve throughout the second half of 2015. Economic analysts agreed with this assessment and noted that evidence suggests that housing markets are seeing a steady upswing.

In unrelated reporting, the Department of Commerce is due to release reports on housing starts and building permits today.

20
Apr
By support
Market Outlook

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 20, 2015

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week April 20 2015Last week’s economic reports included the NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, Housing Starts, and Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of mortgage rates. Other news included the weekly jobless claims report and consumer sentiment for April.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise

Mortgage rates moved up according to Freddie Mac. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased by one basis point to 3.67 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage also increased by one basis point to 2.94 percent.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose by five basis points to 2.88 percent. Discount points rose from 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed rate loans to 0.70 percent and fell from 0.60 percent to 0.50 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages. Average points for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage held steady at 0.50 percent.

Weekly jobless claims rose to 294,000 against expectations of 281,000 new claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 282,000 new jobless claims filed.

Last week’s reports ended on a positive note with April’s Consumer Sentiment report. The April reading rose nearly three points to 95.9 as compared to the projected reading of 93.5 and March’s reading of 93.0.

Home Builder Confidence Increases, Housing Starts Up

The National Association of Home Builders Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to a reading of 56 against the March reading of 52. Builder confidence rose in all three components comprising the HMI. Low mortgage rates and improved labor markets were cited as factors influencing builder confidence.

Regional markets showed mixed results. Three month moving averages showed that builder confidence rose by one point to a reading of 56 in the South; the reading for the Northwest was unchanged at 42. And the Midwestern region lost two points for a builder confidence reading of 54. The West lost three points for a builder confidence reading of 58. The NAHB says that any reading over 50 indicates that more builders are confident about housing market conditions than those who are not.

Housing starts rose in March according to the Department of Commerce, but fell short of expectations. 926,000 housing starts were reported with expectations of 1.04 million starts. February’s reading was 908,000 starts. Lingering winter weather conditions contributed to fewer than expected housing starts.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes reports on new and existing home sales, the FHFA Home Price Index and weekly reports on mortgage rates from Freddie Mac along with weekly jobless claims.

16
Apr
By support
Market Outlook

Home Builder Confidence Rises in April

Home Builder Confidence Rises in AprilThe National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported that April’s Housing Market Index rose from a reading of 52 in March to 56 for April. This is in line with warmer weather and the peak home buying season in spring and summer. Readings over 50 indicate that more builders view market conditions as positive as those who do not. NAHB members cited lower mortgage rates and better labor market conditions as reasons they expect more home buyers to enter the market.

All Components of Builder Confidence Increase

The NAHB Home Builder Index is calculated from three components. The reading for confidence in current housing market conditions rose from 58 in March to 61 in April. Builder confidence for sales condition in the next six months rose from a reading of 59 to 64, which was the highest reading for 2015 so far.

Home builder confidence in buyer foot traffic moved from 37 to a reading of 41 in April. Lingering winter weather likely kept house hunters indoors in many areas. NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said that the uptick in the NAHB Housing Market Index indicates that housing market conditions can be expected to improve throughout 2015.

Regional Housing Results Mixed, Fed Beige Book Cites Winter Weather

NAHB measures regional changes in housing markets on a three-month rolling average. April’s results were mixed.

Builder confidence in the southern region increased from 55 to 56 in April. The northwestern region was unchanged from March to April at 42. Builder confidence in Midwestern housing markets fell by two points from 56 to 54. The western region saw builder confidence fall three points from the March reading of 61 to April’s reading of 58.

In an unrelated report, the Federal Reserve also released its Beige Book report which is a collection of anecdotes from business contacts throughout the nation. Winter weather conditions were prominently mentioned in the Beige Book report and were seen as detrimental for housing conditions.

The Beige Book report also mentioned layoffs caused by low oil and gas prices. This could negatively influence housing market conditions in regions where oil and gas provide many jobs and contribute to local economies.