Jobless Claims

With the introduction of tariffs on Tuesday, there is significant uncertainty across all sectors regarding the potential outcome. While important data releases—including the PCE Index, Personal Income & Spending, and Consumer Sentiment for the quarter—have taken place, their impact is expected to be largely overshadowed by apprehension surrounding the widespread tariff decisions.

With the upcoming release of inflation reports, including the CPI and PPI this week, all eyes will be on these two key metrics. The focus remains on tariffs and their impact on the markets, as well as inflation, which is likely to be influenced by the new tariff policies.

PCI Index

A separate measure of prices known as the core rate rose a sharper 0.4% in February, a tick above Wall Street’s forecast. The increase in the core PCE in the past year climbed to 2.8% from 2.7%. The core rate omits food and energy prices, which often jump up and down in the short run. It’s seen as a better predictor of future inflation.

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending rose a modest 0.4% last month, the government said, and rebounded from a decline in January. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had projected a 0.5% gain. Household spending is the main engine of the U.S. economy, but it appears to have sputtered in early 2025.

Consumer Sentiment

The final reading of consumer sentiment in March fell to a 32-month low, as more Americans than at any time since the financial crisis think unemployment will rise in the year ahead. The second of two readings of the consumer-sentiment survey fell to 57.0 from an initial 57.9, the University of Michigan said Friday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% with the current rate at 5.89%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% with the current rate at 6.65%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.18%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.20%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 224,000 compared to the expected claims of 226,000. The prior week landed at 225,000.

What’s Ahead

CPI and PPI are ahead next week as well as the tariffs, which are set to be in effect starting Tuesday.

The previous week had the Federal Reserve making their first rate decision since the Trump administration had taken office. With many uncertainties about the current direction of things, the Federal Reserve had decided there would not be any change necessary to the current rates. Stating that the current inflation and economic conditions have largely been a result of the Trump administration’s policies on tariffs. Chairman Powell has been strongly dovish at this point, stating they would need to “see how things actually work out.” There were a slew of other minor data releases but none were far reaching in their impact on the economy and current direction of things.

FOMC Rate Decision

Faced with pressing concerns over the impact tariffs will have on a slowing economy, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee kept its key borrowing rate targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December. Markets had been pricing in virtually zero chance of a move at this week’s two-day policy meeting.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03% with the current rate at 5.83%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02% with the current rate at 6.67%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.13% for this week. Current rates at 6.15%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.13% for this week. Current rates at 6.17%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 223,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 221,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week should feature a slew of data releases, most notably the GDP Estimates, S&P Global US Manufacturing / Services PMI estimates, Consumer Confidence, Consumer Sentiment (Univ. of Michigan), and Personal Income & Spending.

The inflation data report released last week showed a surprising result—it was cooler than expected across the board. This has led to a much more positive outlook, even in light of recent events regarding the Trump administration. While consumer sentiment reports from the University of Michigan still showed more dissatisfaction than expected, they were accompanied by largely positive data across various releases. There are strong expectations that there will be no interest rate increases, with some potential for rate cuts this year.

Consumer Price Index

The consumer price index increased a mild 0.2% last month, the government said, breaking a string of elevated inflation readings since November. The rate of inflation in the past 12 months fell to 2.8% from 3.0% in January. It had slowed to as low as 2.4% early last fall before a rebound in inflation toward the end of 2024.

Producer Price Index

The flat reading in the producer-price index — helped by lower energy costs — came in under expectations. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% increase. The last time the producer-price index showed so little inflation was in July. The rate of wholesale inflation in the past 12 months, meanwhile, dropped to 3.2% from a one-year high of 3.7% in January.

Consumer Sentiment

The burst of optimism following Donald Trump’s presidential election victory has evaporated. A new survey shows that Americans are worried about rising inflation due to the president’s tariffs and are unsettled by the uncertainty in Washington. According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment fell to a 29-month low of 57.6 in March, down from 64.7 in the previous month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01% with the current rate at 5.80%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02% with the current rate at 6.65%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.11% for this week. Current rates at 6.28%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.10% for this week. Current rates at 6.30%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 220,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 220,000.

What’s Ahead

The FOMC is making it’s next rate decision in the upcoming week on Wednesday. There are a number of smaller data releases surrounding the rate decision, but largely all eyes are on the rate decision.