Mortgage Rates

With the prior week’s release of the inflation data and next week’s release of the PCE Index data — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure — it has been an exceptionally light week for economic releases. The only notable reports were Leading Economic Indicators and Consumer Sentiment, both of which showed declines. Consumer sentiment, in particular, has seen a significant drop since the change in administration, reaching lows not seen in decades.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US rose slightly by 0.1% in April 2026 to 97.4 (2016=100), following a 0.6% decline in March. Overall, the LEI fell by 0.7% over the six months between October 2025 and April 2026, a less severe rate of decline than its 1.0% contraction over the previous six months (April to October 2025).

Consumer Sentiment
The index of consumer sentiment dropped 4.1 points to 44.8 in May, touching the lowest level in the history of the survey going back to 1978, when it began to be published monthly.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.14%, bringing the current rate to 5.85%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.15%, bringing the current rate to 6.51%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a 0.01% increase, with current rate at 6.18%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a 0.01% increase, with current rate at 6.20%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 209,000 compared to the expected claims of 212,000. The previous week landed at 211,000.

What’s Ahead
The following week should feature the release of the PCE Index inflation data, with an otherwise light week surrounding it.

The CPI and PPI came in on schedule, and the results were warmer than expected, with the Producer Price Index showing an increase of 0.6% — nearly double the expected 0.3% rise. This is also reflected in the elevated, though expected, CPI reading of 0.6%. This is certainly being driven by increased fuel and energy costs.

This is further supported by U.S. Retail Sales showing an increase, though high gas prices and inflation are playing a major role in the rise in sales figures. As a result, the rate cuts the Federal Reserve had discussed in the past are now looking very unlikely to happen.

Consumer Price Index
The U.S. inflation rate leaped to a nearly three-year high of 3.8% in April because of higher gas prices and the pain for consumers isn’t going away anytime soon. The spurt in inflation since the Iran war began 10 weeks ago could force the Federal Reserve to shelve an interest-rate cut this summer, especially since the job market has improved. The Fed cut a key interest rate three times last year to keep the unemployment rate from rising.

Producer Price Index
A recap of consumer prices in April showed inflation climbing to a three-year high. Now, the latest look at skyrocketing wholesale prices points to even higher inflation in the months ahead. The producer price index jumped 1.4% in April, the government said Wednesday, marking the biggest advance in more than four years.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01%, bringing the current rate to 5.71%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01%, bringing the current rate to 6.36%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a 0.24% increase, with current rate at 6.17%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a 0.24% increase, with current rate at 6.19%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 211,000 compared to the expected claims of 205,000. The previous week landed at 199,000.

What’s Ahead
A light week planned for next week, with only the Consumer Sentiment taking center stage.

The inflation data scheduled for this week has been pushed back by one week. The unemployment data was the only impactful economic report released this week. Across the board, unemployment statistics came in within expectations, while wage increases were slightly below expectations. Historically, wages have lagged behind inflation, making both unemployment and wage growth strong barometers of the economy’s overall health. Despite the current state of affairs, the economy appears to be holding strong, as reflected across the broader markets.

Job Wages

The average hourly earnings for all employees in the U.S. total private sector reached ($37.41). This represents a 3.57% increase over the past 12 months, reflecting ongoing, though moderating, wage growth, according to data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08%, bringing the current rate to 5.72%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.07%, bringing the current rate to 6.37%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a 0.01% increase, with current rate at 5.93%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a 0.01% increase, with current rate at 5.95%.

Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims were reported at 200,000, compared to the expected 205,000 claims. The previous week’s figure was 190,000.

What’s Ahead

Delayed inflation data for the CPI and PPI is scheduled for release next week. It has yet to be determined whether additional delays will occur.