Mortgage Rates

Last week’s economic news included readings on Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices, new and pending home sales. Weekly readings on new jobless claims and average mortgage rates were also released. Case-Shiller reported that home prices rose by 0.20 percent from January to February with a year-over- year growth rate of 5.80 percent.

Western cities continued to post the fastest growth rates for home prices with Seattle, Washington topping annual home price growth rates at 12.20 percent; Portland, Oregon followed with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 9.70 percent. Dallas, Texas posted the third fastest growth rate for home prices with year-over-year growth in home prices at 8.80 percent. Dallas replaced Denver, Colorado for third place in the 20-City Home Price Index. 15 of 20 cities tracked in the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index posted higher year-over-year gains in February than for January 2017.

New Home Sales Rise as Pending Home Sales Dip

New home sales rose to 621,000 sales in March; analysts expected a reading of 580,000 new homes sold on a seasonally adjusted annual basis based on January’s reading of 587,000 new home sales. Sales of new homes are important due to months of high demand for homes coupled with low inventories of homes for sale. Sales of new homes can indicate future readings on builder confidence and housing starts, but there are no definite connections between new home sales, builder confidence in housing market conditions and housing starts.

Pending home sales dipped in March with a month-to-month reading of -0.80 percent as compared to February’s seasonally adjusted annual reading of 5.50 percent. Pending sales are home sales for which sales contracts are signed but have not been closed. Pending home sales are an indicator of future completed sales and can be impacted by factors including fluctuating mortgage rates and regulatory influences on mortgage lending and mortgage approval requirements.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was six basis points higher at 4.03 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was four basis points higher at 3.27 percent. Mortgage rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 3.12 percent which was two basis points higher than for the previous week. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage and averaged 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages and 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages

New jobless claims rose to 257,000 last week as compared to expectations of 245,000 new claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 243,000. Analysts said that the spike appeared to be localized in New York State and would likely resolve soon.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s economic readings include ADP and Non-Farm Payrolls, national unemployment rate and readings on inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Fed will issue its customary post-meeting announcement on Wednesday; this announcement is expected to reveal the Fed’s next move on interest rates. Weekly readings on new jobless claims and mortgage rates will also be released.

Last week’s economic reports included NAHB Housing Market Index, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. The National Association of Realtors® released data on existing home sales; Freddie Mac released average mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

Builder Sentiment Dips in April, but Remains Strong

The National Association of Home Builders reported that home builder sentiment dipped three points in April to an index reading of 78. Any reading over 50 indicates that more builders are positive about housing market conditions than not. Builders continued to cite concerns including shortages of labor and buildable lots and increasing materials costs.

Builder confidence in housing market conditions do not always reflect building activity. March housing starts were lower at 1.215 million starts on a year-over-year basis. February’s reading was 1.303 million starts; the expected reading for April was 1.238 million starts. Readings for housing starts include single family homes of one to four units and multifamily complexes with five or more units. Single-family housing starts were 6.20 percent lower than in February at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 821,000 starts.

While housing starts were lower in March, more building permits were issued in March than in February. 1,260 million permits were issued in March on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis as compared to February’s reading of 1.216 million building permits issued.

Mortgage Rates Fall, Existing Home Sales Up

Mortgage rates fell below three percent according to Freddie Mac. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped from 4.08 percent to 3.97 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage fell by nine basis point from 3.34 percent to 3.23 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was eight basis points lower at 3.10 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage. Lower mortgage rates are good news for home buyers challenged by rapidly rising home prices based on high demand and low supplies of homes for sale.

Home buyers persisted in March despite higher home prices. Sales of pre-owned homes hit a 10 year high in March as 5.71 million pre-owned homes were sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. As compared to February’s reading of 5.48 million pre-owned homes sold, analysts expected a reading of 5.65 million sales of pre-owned homes in March.

New Jobless Claims Rise

First-time jobless claims were higher last week with a reading of 244,000 new claims as compared to the prior week’s reading of 234,000 new jobless claims. Week-to-week readings for new jobless claims tend to be volatile, but last week’s reading remained well below the benchmark of 300,000 new claims filed.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s economic news includes readings on new and pending home sales, Case-Shiller Home Price Index reports, along with weekly reports on average mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Last week’s economic releases included readings on inflation, core inflation, new jobless claims, and mortgage rates. Consumer sentiment for April was also released.

Inflation Rate Dips in April

Consumer Price Index readings for April indicated that inflation decreased from 0.10 percent growth in March to a negative reading of -0.30 percent reading in April. The Core Consumer Price Index, which does not include volatile food and energy readings, also dipped in April to -0.10 percent from the March reading of +0.20 percent. While negative readings for month=to-month inflation suggests sluggish economic conditions, month-to-month readings can be volatile

 It’s possible that sluggish inflation readings could cause the Fed to postpone further interest rate increases. Lenders typically raise consumer interest rates when the Fed raises its target federal funds rate.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.08 percent a reading two basis points lower than for the previous week. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was two basis points lower at 3.34 percent; rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage dropped by one basis point to an average of 3.18 percent Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages. Last week’s mortgage rates were the lowest seen so far in 2017.

Fewer new jobless claims were filed last week with 234,000 new claims filed as compared expectations of 245,000 new claims filed and the previous week’s reading of 235, new claims filed.

Consumer sentiment rose in April to an index reading of 98.0. Analysts expected a reading of 96.0 based on the March reading of 96.9. The University of Michigan said that most consumers are upbeat about current economic conditions.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes the NAHB Housing Market Index, Existing Home Sales, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings for average mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.