23
Oct
By Mike Pfefferman
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Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 23, 2023

This week featured the usual retail sales report which shows consumer demand and as well as an indicator of the velocity of money, not only for consumers but business to business as well. An increase would show an increase in national and local increase in economic activity, which is important as we move into Q4 of the year; where the holiday season is expected to see an increase in consumer activity.

Retail Sales
Retail sales have exceeded expectations this month showing month-to-month increases across the board:

  • Retail sales are up 0.7% from the previous month with an expected increase of 0.3%.
  • Retail sales with auto removed show an increase of 0.6% compared to an expected 0.2% increase.
  • Business inventories are also above the expected increase at 0.4% compared to 0.3%.

Housing Starts & Building Permits
U.S. Housing Starts rebound in September in September after a sharp drop in the prior month. Largely, economists are feeling that builders have been losing confidence since rates have peaked over 7% and housing is expected to trend lower until the end of the year.

  • Construction of new U.S. homes rebounded 7% in September to an annual pace of 1.36 million units after a sharp 1.5% drop in the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.
  • Building permits, a sign of future construction, fell 4.4% to a 1.47 million rate.
  • Existing home sales beat expected sales with 3.98 million sales compared to the expected 3.90 million sales.

Key point: The pace of construction for single-family homes in September has risen by 3.2% and apartment building construction rose by 17.1%

Mortgage Applications Increased for the Month of October
MBA Mortgage Applications Increase, a measure of mortgage loan application volume again.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

  • 15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week increase by 0.03% with the rates now at 92%.
  • 30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week increase by 0.06% with the current rate at 63%

MND Rate Index

  • 30-Yr FHA rates increased week to week seeing a 0.28% basis point increase. Current rates at 40%
  • 30-Yr VA rates increased week to week seeing a 0.30% basis point increase. Current rates at 44%

Job Claims
Those who applied for unemployment benefits last week fell to a nine-month low of 188,000, subverting expectations that layoffs would rise as the U.S. interest rates continued to increase.

Initial Claims were 188,000 compared to the expected claims of 211,000. The prior month was 211,000.

What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic reports include PMI data, along with new home sales. There will also be a national GDP data release which can give an indication of the growth of markets and economy as a whole. Lastly, Personal Income and Spending will be at the tail of the week along with PCE Index numbers.

10
Oct
By Mike Pfefferman
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Uncategorized

Why You Should Compare Different Mortgages

Comparing mortgages is a crucial step in the process of buying a home or refinancing an existing mortgage. Here are some reasons why:

Save Money: Comparing mortgages can help you save money by finding the best interest rates and terms available. A lower interest rate can mean thousands of dollars in savings over the life of a mortgage.

Avoid Pitfalls: By comparing mortgages, you can avoid pitfalls such as hidden fees, penalties, or other unfavorable terms that can cost you money and cause financial stress.

Negotiate Better Terms: If you have a good understanding of what’s available in the mortgage market, you can negotiate better terms with lenders.

Peace of Mind: Comparing mortgages can give you peace of mind that you are making the best financial decision for your situation.

Each person’s financial situation is unique, so finding the right mortgage that fits your individual needs is important. Comparing mortgages can help you find the right type of mortgage, such as a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate mortgage, that suits your budget and financial goals. It can be a complex process, but here are some general steps you can take to help guide you in your search.

Determine your budget: The first step is to determine how much you can afford to borrow. Consider your monthly income, expenses, and savings to figure out how much you can comfortably afford to pay each month toward your mortgage.

Shop around: Look at different mortgage options from different lenders to compare interest rates, fees, and terms. Don’t just go with the first offer you receive, as there may be better options available.

Consider the type of mortgage: There are different types of mortgages available, such as fixed-rate mortgages and adjustable-rate mortgages. Each type has its own advantages and disadvantages, so research and consider which option would work best for your needs.

Think about the length of the loan: Mortgages typically come in 15- or 30-year terms, but other options may be available. Longer terms mean lower monthly payments, but more interest paid over time. Shorter terms mean higher monthly payments, but less interest paid overall.

Check your credit score: Your credit score can affect the interest rate you qualify for, so make sure it’s in good shape before applying for a mortgage.

Get pre-approved: Getting pre-approved for a mortgage can give you a better idea of what you can afford, and it can also help you be taken more seriously by sellers when making an offer on a home.

Remember, taking the time to research and compare your options can help you find the right mortgage for your needs and budget and is an essential step in the home-buying process, and it can help you save money, find the right mortgage, avoid pitfalls, negotiate better terms, and have peace of mind. A mortgage broker can help you find and compare mortgage options from different lenders, which can save you time and potentially help you find a better deal.

09
Oct
By Mike Pfefferman
0 Comments
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 9, 2023

The previous week offered a blend of economic updates, covering a report on the jobs market and weekly changes in mortgage rates.

The Jobs Report Was Released
This week, the monthly jobs report was released by the United States Bureau of Labor and Statistics. It showed that the job market completely exceeded all expectations, adding 336,000 jobs during the month of September. That was far higher than the expected number of 170,000. It also represents a significant increase when compared to August, where the economy added a revised total of 227,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate remained relatively steady, coming in at 3.8 percent, which is the same as August. This jobs report is important because it could play a role in whether the Fed decides to raise interest rates in November or keep them the same. With the jobs growth exceeding all expectations, it could give the Fed reason to raise interest rates, as the Fed might believe the economy is still red hot and can tolerate higher interest rates.

A Shift in Mortgage Rates and Employment Dynamics
The 30-year fixed mortgage, the most popular in the United States, continues to trend upward. This week, the average 30-year fixed climbed to 7.8 percent, up significantly from 7.55 percent last week. This is also significantly higher than the rates were in August, which averaged around 7.15 percent. Some experts are stating that a potential rate of 8 percent is not out of the question.

The 15-year fixed mortgage rate has also continued to trend upward, albeit not as much. This week, the average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage was 7.12 percent, up from 7.05 percent last week. This is still significantly higher than the 6.5 percent average that we saw in August.

It is clear that these rising mortgage rates are putting a damper on those looking to buy a home; however, it does not appear to have caused a major drop in housing prices, although its impacts could still be yet to come.

Consumer Sentiment: A Mild Dip
Consumer sentiment appears to be holding steady, with the current numbers coming in around 68.1. This is still a bit lower than the numbers were in August when they came in at around 69.5. At the same time, the overall sentiment of the current economic conditions continues to trend downward, coming in around 71.4, compared to 75.5 in August.

Consumers are still concerned about inflation and rising interest rates, which make it harder to make ends meet. It will be interesting to see how the jobs report impacts consumer sentiment moving forward.

Looking Forward
The Producer Price Index is due to be released next week, which is another key component of inflationary data. For now, all eyes will be on the Fed’s next meeting, which takes place in early November. The Fed will decide whether to raise rates or hold them steady for another cycle.