07
Apr
By Mike Pfefferman
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 7th, 2025

The previous week has seen tremendous impacts with the Trump administration’s recently revealed tariff policies, sparking widespread concern about their broad economic effects. These concerns have already led to rapid contractions in multiple markets.

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has stated he is very uncertain about any moves made by the Federal Reserve and wants to wait for additional information before making decisions.

Uncertainty is at an all-time high, without much relief—even in light of positive data from previous months. Without any clear direction, there is growing speculation that inflation will only increase from here. Meanwhile, employment data has already shown a rapid increase in unemployment forecasts.

U.S. Employment Report

The U.S. added a bigger-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March. Good news to be sure, but that was before President Trump unveiled norm-shattering tariffs on the rest of the world, the repercussions of which are yet to be felt on the labor market. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast an increase of 140,000 new jobs in March vs a revised 117,000 gain in February. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, moved up to 4.2% from 4.1%, matching the highest rate in five months.

ISM Manufacturing

According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), tariffs are driving up business costs and dampening economic activity. U.S. manufacturers appear to have slipped back into a slump, facing higher input prices and weaker demand due to President Donald Trump’s new metal tariffs and pending duties on other imported goods. ISM’s manufacturing index fell to 49% in March, down from 50.3% the previous month—any reading below 50% indicates a contraction in the sector.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07% with the current rate at 5.82%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% with the current rate at 6.64%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.15% for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.15% for this week. Current rates at 6.05%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 219,000 compared to the expected claims of 228,000. The prior week landed at 225,000.

What’s Ahead

Following reports that the tariff news has disrupted market expectations, we should anticipate that both the CPI and PPI forecasts will come in higher than expected.

04
Apr
By Mike Pfefferman
Mortgage Rates

Understanding the Role of the Federal Reserve in Mortgage Rates

When you’re thinking about buying a home, you may hear a lot about mortgage rates going up or down. But have you ever wondered what causes these changes? One of the biggest influences on mortgage rates is the Federal Reserve, often called “the Fed.” While the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly, its policies play a major role in how much you’ll pay for your home loan. Let’s break it down in simple terms:

What is the Federal Reserve?
The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. Its main job is to keep the economy stable by managing inflation, employment, and interest rates. Think of the Fed as the “guardian” of the economy, adjusting financial policies to keep things running smoothly.

How the Fed Influences Mortgage Rates
The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly. Instead, it controls something called the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate banks charge each other to borrow money overnight. Changes in this rate have a ripple effect on other interest rates, including those for mortgages.

Here’s how it works:

  • When the Fed raises rates – Borrowing money becomes more expensive for banks, and they pass that cost onto consumers in the form of higher mortgage rates.
  • When the Fed lowers rates – Borrowing becomes cheaper, and mortgage rates often decrease, making it more affordable to buy a home.

Why Does the Fed Raise or Lower Rates?
The Fed adjusts rates based on the overall health of the economy.

  • If inflation is high – The Fed raises interest rates to slow down spending and borrowing. This helps bring inflation under control but can make mortgage rates higher.
  • If the economy is struggling – The Fed lowers rates to encourage borrowing and spending, which can lead to lower mortgage rates and make homeownership more affordable.

How Fed Decisions Affect Homebuyers
Since mortgage rates influence your monthly payments, even a small increase can mean paying thousands more over the life of your loan. Let’s look at an example:

  • A $300,000 loan at 3% interest – Monthly payment: approximately $1,265
  • A $300,000 loan at 6% interest – Monthly payment: approximately $1,798

That’s a significant difference. Keeping an eye on Fed rate changes can help you decide when to lock in a mortgage rate.

Tips for Homebuyers in a Changing Rate Environment

  • Get Pre-Approved Early – Locking in a rate when they’re low can save you money.
  • Consider Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) – If rates are high, an ARM might offer lower initial payments.
  • Work on Your Credit Score – The better your credit, the better the rate you’ll qualify for.
  • Talk to a Mortgage Professional – An expert can help you navigate the market and choose the best loan for your situation.

While the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, its decisions have a significant impact on the housing market. Understanding how the Fed influences interest rates can help you make informed decisions when buying or refinancing a home.

31
Mar
By Mike Pfefferman
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 31st, 2025

With the introduction of tariffs on Tuesday, there is significant uncertainty across all sectors regarding the potential outcome. While important data releases—including the PCE Index, Personal Income & Spending, and Consumer Sentiment for the quarter—have taken place, their impact is expected to be largely overshadowed by apprehension surrounding the widespread tariff decisions.

With the upcoming release of inflation reports, including the CPI and PPI this week, all eyes will be on these two key metrics. The focus remains on tariffs and their impact on the markets, as well as inflation, which is likely to be influenced by the new tariff policies.

PCI Index

A separate measure of prices known as the core rate rose a sharper 0.4% in February, a tick above Wall Street’s forecast. The increase in the core PCE in the past year climbed to 2.8% from 2.7%. The core rate omits food and energy prices, which often jump up and down in the short run. It’s seen as a better predictor of future inflation.

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending rose a modest 0.4% last month, the government said, and rebounded from a decline in January. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had projected a 0.5% gain. Household spending is the main engine of the U.S. economy, but it appears to have sputtered in early 2025.

Consumer Sentiment

The final reading of consumer sentiment in March fell to a 32-month low, as more Americans than at any time since the financial crisis think unemployment will rise in the year ahead. The second of two readings of the consumer-sentiment survey fell to 57.0 from an initial 57.9, the University of Michigan said Friday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% with the current rate at 5.89%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% with the current rate at 6.65%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.18%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.20%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 224,000 compared to the expected claims of 226,000. The prior week landed at 225,000.

What’s Ahead

CPI and PPI are ahead next week as well as the tariffs, which are set to be in effect starting Tuesday.