Mortgage Rates

Last week’s economic data included releases on construction spending and labor-related reports including ADP Payrolls, Non-Farm Payrolls, national unemployment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

Construction Spending Increases in February

February construction spending grew by 0.80 percent from January’s reading of -0.50 percent. Analysts expected a reading of + 1.00 percent. Housing industry pros and analysts continue monitoring construction spending for indications of future construction projects. Construction spending was boosted by unseasonably warm weather in regions typically subject to cold winter climates.

 U.S. homes are in high demand despite rapidly rising home prices due to short supplies of available homes; industry leaders contend that building more homes is the only remedy for the imbalance between would-be home buyers and low inventories of homes for sale. Home builders repeatedly cite shortages of buildable lots and skilled labor as obstacles to building more homes.

Job Growth Dips as New Jobless Claims and Unemployment Rate Falls

ADP reported that 263,000 private-sector jobs were created in March as compared to revised readings of 245,000 jobs created in February and expectations of 170,000 jobs created in March Private-sector employers were encouraged by potential reductions in taxes, regulations, infrastructure and improvements.  

Non-farm payrolls dropped significantly in March; the Commerce Department reported only 98,000 new public and private sector jobs added in March as compared to expectations of 185,000 jobs added and 219,000 public and private-sector jobs added in February.

Economists said that rapid growth of jobs seen in the last few years was not sustainable and cited severe reductions in retail jobs as contributing to the drop in the Non-farm payrolls reading for March. The steep drop in job creation could cause the Federal Reserve to hold off on raising the federal funds rate in June, but this is far from certain depending on economic readings for April and May.

National unemployment fell to 4.50 percent in March against expectations of 4.70 percent and February’s reading of 4.70 percent

New jobless claims fell to 234,000 claims as compared to expectations of 251,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 259,000 claims. Lower initial jobless claims despite the steep drop in job growth suggests that workers are leaving the workforce and are ineligible to file new claims or that the drop in jobs growth was a “correction” and future jobs growth reports may not show such sharp adjustments.

Mortgage Rates Mixed

Rates for fixed-rate mortgages were lower last week. Freddie Mac reported that average rates for fixed rate mortgages fell; the average rate for a 30-year mortgage was four basis points lower at 4.20 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgaged dropped three basis points to 3.36 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage ticked up by one basis point to an average of 3.19 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on inflation, core inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on new jobless claims and mortgage rates will also be released.

Last week’s economic news included Case-Shiller Home Price Index reports, pending home sales, and consumer confidence readings. Weekly readings on average mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

Case–Shiller: Home Prices Higher in January

According to Case-Shiller reports released last Tuesday, average home prices increased in January. The national average home price rose 0.20 percent from December to January; year over year, home prices grew by 5.90 percent. Home prices were 0.90 percent higher on a month-to-month basis when seasonally adjusted. The West continued to dominate home price growth. Seattle, Washington reported 11.20 percent growth in home prices year-over-year. Portland, Oregon reported year-over-year home price growth of 9.70 percent and Denver, Colorado reported that home prices grew by 9.20 percent year-over-year.

San Francisco, which posted double-digit home price growth in recent months, posted year-over-year home price growth of 6.20 percent. Home prices declined 0.40 percent month-to-month. While short supplies of homes for sale continued to drive up home prices, slower home price growth rates in San Francisco, California posted fell by 0.40 percent month to month and were 6.30 percent higher year-over-year. San Francisco posted double-digit year-over-year growth in recent months; slower home price growth over a period of months could signal a cooling of red-hot home prices in high-demand markets.

The three cities with lowest home price growth rates were Cleveland, Ohio and Washington, DC, where home prices rose 3.90 percent year-over-year. New-York City posted a year-over-year gain of 3.20 percent.

Pending Home Sales Rebound in February, Mortgage Rates Drop

The National Association of Realtors® said that pending home sales reached their second highest reading in ten years. Pending home sales rose 5.50 percent in February as compared to January’s negative reading of -2.80 percent. The Pending Home Sales Index rose to 112.30 in February as compared to January’s reading of 106.40. Unseasonably warm weather, home buyers rushing to buy before mortgage rates and home prices go higher. Improved jobs markets and few layoffs were also seen as boosting consumer confidence in buying homes.

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by nine basis points to 4.14 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was five basis points lower at 3.39 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage was six basis points lower at 3.18 points. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages and 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Lower mortgage rates could help first-time buyers who’ve been sidelined due to rapidly increasing home prices and mortgage rates.

In other news, new jobless claims were lower than last were with 258,000 new claims filed as compared to last week’s reading of 261,000 new jobless claims. Analysts expected a reading of 247,000 new claims filed. Spring holidays and school vacations can create additional volatility in week-to-week first-time jobless claims.

Consumer sentiment index readings for March increased to 96.90 against expectations of a 97.60 index reading. February’s index reading for consumer sentiment was 96.30.

What‘s Ahead

Next week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on construction spending, ADP payrolls, Non-farm payrolls and the national unemployment rate. Mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic news included releases on new and pre-owned home sales and weekly readings on average mortgage rates and new unemployment claims.

Pre-owned Home Sales Fall, Due to Dwindling Inventory

5.48 million pre-owned homes were sold on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. Analysts expected 5.45 million sales based on January’s reading of 5.69 million sales. Lagging supplies of listed homes continue to cause home prices to rise as buyers compete for fewer available homes. First time buyers represented only 32 percent of sales as compared to the normal reading of 40 percent. First-buyers represent new demand for homes and they are important to sales of existing homes that allow current homeowners to move up to larger homes.

The available supply of pre-owned homes was 6.40 percent lower in February than for February 2016. Real estate pros reported that as of February 2017. There was a 3.80 months’ supply of available homes as compared to the normal range of six-month supply.  

Regional Results for Existing Home Sales

Existing home sales declined in three out of four regions tracked by the National Association of Realtors®. Sales of previously owned homes fell by 13.80 percent in the Northeastern region; the Midwestern region posted a 7.00 percent decline in sales. The Western region reported a 3.20 percent decrease in sales. The Southern region posted a 1.30 percent increase in existing home sales.  

Sales of new homes rose in February; 592,000 homes were sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis as compared to expectations of 571,000 sales and 558,000 new home sales in January. Sales were 6.1 percent higher than for January and were 12.80 percent higher year-over-year. February’s reading was the highest in seven months

Analysts said that the national median price of a new home was $296,000 in February, this was 3.90 percent lower than January’s reading and 4.90 percent lower year-over-year.   

Mortgage Rates Fall, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by seven basis points to 4.23 percent. The rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was six basis points lower at 3.4 percent. The rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was four basis points lower at 3.24 percent on average. Discount points for fixed rate mortgages averaged 0.50 percent; discount points for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 0.40 percent. Lower mortgage rates stood in contrast to the Fed’s decision to raise the federal funds rate last week.

New jobless claims jumped last week with a reading of 258,000 new claims as compared to the prior week’s reading of 243,000 new claims and expectations of 240,000 new claims. While week-to-week readings for jobless claims are notoriously volatile, the four-week rolling average of new jobless claims was higher by 5000 new claims at 246,000 new claims.

What’s Ahead

This week’s economic news includes Case-Shiller Housing Market Index and pending home sales. Also scheduled are readings on inflation and consumer confidence.  Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.