Mortgage Rates

Last week’s economic news included readings on consumer spending, core inflation new home sales and regularly scheduled readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Consumer Spending Dips in November

Commerce Department reports on consumer spending in November indicated that consumer spending was lower in November with 0.20 percent growth as compared to October’s reading of 0.40 percent growth. November’s reading for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, was flat as compared to expectations of 0.10 percent growth and October’s reading of 0.10 percent growth.

New Jobless Claims Rise to 6–Month High

New jobless claims jumped to 275,000 last week as compared to an expected reading of 258,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 254,000 new claims. New claims typically rise during the holiday season due to school and other workplace closures.

There was good news as new jobless claims remained below the benchmark of 300,000 new claims for 94 consecutive weeks. This streak of new claims below 300,000 new claims is the longest since 1970. Increasing numbers of “contingent” workers contributed to volatility in employment; The Rand Corporation reported that 10.10 percent of the workforce was contingent workers in 2005; the percentage of contingent workers increased to 15.80 percent of the U.S. workforce in 2015.

Mortgage Rates, New Home Sales Rise

Freddie Mac reported a jump in mortgage rates last week; the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 14 basis points higher at 4.30 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 15 basis points higher at 3.52 percent; the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage rose 13 basis points to 3.32 percent. Analysts said that the 10-year Treasury rate rose 10 basis points in response to the Fed raising its target funds rate. New home sales gained in November with a seasonally adjusted annualized reading of 582,000 sales as compared to 285,000 expected sales and October’s annual rate of 563,000 sales of new homes. This was the second highest reading for new home sales since early 2008. Builders will be watching mortgage rates and new home sales in the New Year to determine how rising mortgage rates will impact new home sales.

What‘s Ahead

Next week’s scheduled economic news includes Case-Shiller Home Price Index reports, pending home sales and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims. U.S. Financial markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Christmas holiday

Housing news was boosted by the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, which posted its highest readings since July of 2002. In other news, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise the federal funds rate and Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave a press conference. Mortgage rates rose and weekly jobless claims fell.

Home Builder Confidence Highest in 14 Years, Home Construction Lags

According to the National Association of Home Builders, builder confidence in housing market conditions reached its highest rate since 2002 in December. The NAHB Housing Market Index reading topped out at 70 as compared to November’s reading of 63. Analysts said that December’s high reading resulted from a post-election bump in builder confidence. While high builder confidence could bode well for supplies of new homes, construction rates continued to lag strong economic indicators such as low unemployment and high demand for homes. While builders gained confidence in current and projected housing market conditions, they continued to face shortages of labor and buildable lots.

Fed Raises Rate

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the federal funds range by 0.25 percent to 0.50 to 0.75 percent. FOMC said strengthening job markets, lower unemployment and rising household spending supported the decision to raise the federal funds rate. Inflation, while below the Fed’s target of 2.00 percent, is gradually moving toward the Fed’s medium term goal. FOMC’s statement indicated that the Fed’s monetary policy would remain accommodative.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen held a press conference and cited “considerable progress” toward the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability as factors supporting the decision to raise the target federal funds range. Labor markets continue to improve; Chair Yellen said that the economy has added 180,000 jobs per month over the last three months. 15 million jobs have been added in the past seven years. Inflation is growing gradually, and the Fed expects to achieve its target inflation rate of 2.00 percent over the next two years.

Month-to-month consumer spending readings held steady at 0.20 percent growth. Core consumer price index data, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, rose from 0.10 percent to 0.20 percent in November.

Mortgage Rates, Weekly Jobless Claims

Mortgage rates were higher last week, but Freddie Mac said that its survey data was collected before FOMC raised the federal funds rate. Analysts at Freddie Mac suggested a wait-and see position on rate forecasts due to the changing political climate. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was three basis points higher at 4.16 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose one basis point to 2.37 percent and the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was two basis points higher at 3.19 percent. Average discount points for fixed rate mortgages held steady at 0.50 percent and dipped to 0.40 percent for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage.

New jobless claims were lower last week at 254,000 claims filed. Analysts had expected a reading of 250,000 new claims based on the prior week’s reading of 258,000 new claims filed. Volatility in weekly readings for new jobless claims can be expected due to seasonal hiring and layoffs.

What‘s Ahead

Next week’s economic releases include readings on new and previously-owned home sales, inflation and consumer sentiment. Readings for mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

As 2017 winds down, analysts are forecasting economic developments for 2017. Forbes identified three indicators that the U.S. housing market has recovered. Mortgage rates rose again last week; jobless claims fell and consumer sentiment jumped rose five points. The details:

Housing Market Recovery Complete: Forbes

Three conditions were cited by Forbes as evidence that the housing market has recovered:

Analysts said that homeowners are putting their homes on the market after years of waiting for home prices to peak. On the flip side, mortgage rates are expected to rise further and home buyers may be taking a “now or never” plunge into buying homes before market conditions and mortgage rates combine to make home prices unaffordable.

The Federal Reserve reported that U.S. mortgage debt increased by 1.90 percent in Q3 2016; this was the highest growth rate for mortgage debt since Q3 2008. While population growth and household formation are lower, the overall ratio of mortgage debt to disposable income is near historically low levels. Stricter mortgage qualification standards are keeping home buyers from borrowing mortgage loans that they can’t repay.

After years of high demand for short supplies of available homes, home builders are ramping up construction. Housing starts rose by 25 percent in October and matched construction rates not seen since mid-2007.

Mortgage Rates Rise, New Jobless Claims Dip

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose five basis points to 4.13 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was two basis points higher at 3.36 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage also rose by two basis points to 3.17 percent.

New jobless claims fell last week to 258,000 new claims, which matched expectations and was lower than the prior week’s reading of 268,000 new claims. Job openings held steady in October with a reading of 5.50 million.

What’s Ahead

Next week’s economic calendar includes readings on retail sales and inflation along with the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee Statement and a press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index will be released in addition to Commerce Department reports on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.