Economic News

Last week’s economic reporting included readings from S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices, the National Association of Realtors®’ report on pending home sales, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for September. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case-Shiller Reports 4^th Consecutive Month of Record Home Price Growth

July Home Prices grew at a year-over-year pace of 19.70 percent as compared to June’s home price growth rate of 18.70 percent according to S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index.

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index reported that July home prices grew by 19.90 percent year-over-year; 17 of 20 cities posted higher home price growth rates in September than in August. The top three home price growth rates in the 20-City Home Price Index were held by Phoenix, Arizona at 32.40 percent; San Diego, California home prices grew by 27.80 percent, and Seattle, Washington home prices grew by 25.50 percent year-over-year in September.

Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of investment strategy for S&P Dow Jones Indices, said “The last several months have been extraordinary not only in the level of price gains but in the consistency of gains across the country.” This differed from the traditional pattern of rapid home price growth in high-demand coastal metro areas as the covid pandemic drove homebuyers to seek out less congested and less expensive metro areas.

Pending home sales rose by 8.10 percent in August according to the National Association of Realtors® and far exceeded analyst expectations of 1.20 percent growth and July’s reading of -1.80 percent growth in pending home sales. Pending home sales are sales for which purchase contracts are signed, but the transactions are not completed. Real estate pros and mortgage lenders use pending home sales to predict future home sales and loan closings.

Mortgage Rates, Initial Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as the yield on 10-Year Treasuries rose. The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 13 basis points to 3.01 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages also rose by 13 basis points and averaged 2.28 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.48 percent and five basis points higher. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages; 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims increased to 362,000 first-time claims filed from the previous week’s reading of 351,000 new claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims decreased to 2.80 million continuing claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 2.82 million continuing jobless claims filed.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to an index reading of  72.8 in September from August’s reading of 71.0. Analysts expected no change from August’s reading. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on public and private sector jobs, the national unemployment rate, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Last week’s economic news included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing market conditions and Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: August Builder Confidence Fell to Lowest Level in 13 Months

Homebuilder confidence fell to its lowest level since July 2020 according to the National Association of Home Builder’s Housing Market Index for August. The HMI reading for August was 75; analysts expected a reading of 80 based on July’s index reading of 80. Readings over 50 represent positive sentiment among homebuilders surveyed. Ongoing obstacles to builder confidence included high materials costs, supply chain issues, and lack of skilled labor. Shortages of available homes and rapidly rising home prices sidelined buyers and dampened builder confidence.

Component readings of the Housing Market Index were lower in two categories as builder confidence slipped five points to an index reading of 81 for builder confidence in current market conditions and also fell five points to 60 for builder confidence in buyer traffic in new housing developments. Builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months was unchanged at an index reading of 81. Regional readings for builder confidence were also lower. The Midwestern region reported an index reading of 68 and was two points lower than in July. Builders in the Northeastern region reported their confidence reading slipped one point to 74. Homebuilder confidence in the South fell three points to 82; builder confidence in the West fell two points to an index reading of 85.

New home starts reflected builder hesitancy as they slipped from a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.64 million starts in June to 1.53 million starts in July. Building permits rose to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 1.64 million permits issued in July as compared to June’s reading of 1.59 million building permits issued.

Mortgage Rates and Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported little change in average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.86 percent and were one basis point lower than for the previous week. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.16 percent and were one basis point higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged one basis point lower at 2.43 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

Fewer jobless claims were filed last week; 348,000 new claims were filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 377,000 initial jobless claims filed. Continuing jobless claims also dropped last week with 2.82 million ongoing claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 2.90 million continuing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include reports on new and existing home sales, consumer spending, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.