Jobless Claims

At Wednesday’s meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to maintain the current federal funds rate target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. This decision comes amidst conflicting economic signals. Tailing that, there is the Chicago PMI, Non-farm Payrolls, and the full release of the Consumer Confidence report. All of these are expected to match current economic conditions.

The prior week’s GDP numbers also factor into the equation, informing that economic growth has slowed this year compared to the previous year for Quarter 1. The PCE Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred choice of inflation indicators, has shown inflation is within expectations but the whole picture is clear.

PCI Index

Prices in the U.S. jumped again in March based on the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE index, signaling that progress on reducing inflation has stalled. The PCE index rose 0.3% last month, the government said Friday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% gain.

GDP

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday that the U.S. economy is “firing on all cylinders” even as the GDP report showed economic growth coming in well below economists expectations.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.05% with the current rate at 6.44%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.07% with the current rate at 7.17%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a 0.03% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.95%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a 0.02% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.96%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 207,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 212,000.

What’s Ahead

Prior to the most recent data reports, there was high optimism that the Federal Reserve would cut rates this Wednesday. With a clear picture with data to back it up, those initial expectations have tempered significantly.

Last week, the largest report was the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, leading into chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell speaking on the current state of the economy and the stance of the Federal Reserve. While the Beige Book has indicated some positive movement towards a strong economy, there have been many indicators from all inflation data that inflation has yet to be tamed to the standards of the Federal Reserve. 

This was punctuated by Jerome Powell, as he discussed at length the Federal Reserve has yet to feel inflation is under control. This has dispelled all notion there will be a rate cut in the future and likewise a strong reaction from lending partners and markets across the economy.

Beige Book

The U.S. economy grew slightly faster in the early spring and businesses added more workers, a Federal Reserve survey found, but there was little progress in lowering inflation.

The latest findings in the so-called Beige Book match the assessment of top Fed officials, who in recent weeks pointed to a strong economy and still-elevated inflation as a reason not to cut U.S. interest rates soon.

Jerome Powell on Inflation

Most recent data shows a lack of progress this year on reaching the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal, indicating that more time is needed before it can lower interest rates, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.23% with the current rate at 6.39%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.22% with the current rate at 7.1%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a 0.22% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.92%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a 0.22% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.94%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 212,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 212,000.

What’s Ahead

Three reports are set to take center stage. Another strong inflation indicator in the PCE Index & Prices, Consumer Sentiment from Univ. of Michigan, and Manufacturing PMI data. All which should give the final decision on whether the next Federal Reserve Rate Decision meeting will include a rate cut. There is very little expectation there will be a rate cut at this juncture.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is showing higher than expected inflation, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) is showing lower than expected inflation. The two are in conflict with each other; however, the Consumer Price Index is still the far greater indicator for inflation as it directly impacts the cost of living for everyone, not just production assets. 

Given the Federal Reserve’s recent speeches it would seem that there is very likely to be a delay in the rate cuts this upcoming quarter. They have stated numerous times they are driven largely by data and that data has proven that inflation is still not as quite under control as they had anticipated moving into Quarter 2. Lending partners have been responding in kind to the news as they have had strong rate increases across the board for the previous week.

Producer Price Index

The producer price index is more volatile than a similar survey of consumer prices, but it’s not pointing to a broad acceleration in U.S. inflation. To be sure, the PPI has moved higher in early 2024. The yearly rate of wholesale inflation climbed to an 11-month high of 2.1% in March from 1.6% in the prior month.

Consumer Price Index

The cost of consumer goods and services rose a sharp 0.4% in March, capping off a third straight month of elevated inflation readings that will make it hard for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon. The increase in the consumer price index last month exceeded the 0.3% forecast of economists.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.10% with the current rate at 6.16%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.06% with the current rate at 6.88%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a 0.25% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.70%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a 0.26% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.72%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 211,000 compared to the expected claims of 217,000. The prior week landed at 222,000.

What’s Ahead

The Beige Book report is the only impactful release next week. We should see a relatively calm week, as the weeks following inflation data reports often have a less-filled schedule. This upcoming week should feature the usual weekly reports in jobs data.