Jobless Claims

Last week’s reports were plentiful, but few had a greater impact on the lending and broader markets. The most significant among them were the Nonfarm Payrolls, Consumer Credit, and Consumer Sentiment reports. 

Currently, considerable movement within the government administration is contributing to widespread uncertainty and instability across various markets. Additionally, the recent outbreak of Avian Flu has driven poultry prices sharply higher, further adding to consumer unease. This uncertainty is reflected in the Consumer Sentiment reports, which have seen their most significant decline since July, as inflation concerns intensify.

Meanwhile, Consumer Credit data came in worse than expected, while job reports exceeded expectations. Given these factors, we should anticipate continued uncertainty in the weeks ahead.

Consumer Credit

Total consumer credit rose $40.8 billion in December, after a $5.4 billion decline in the prior month, the Federal Reserve said Friday. In percentage terms, it is the biggest gain since June 2022. Revolving credit (typically credit-card debt) made up most of the increase, rising at a 20.2% annual rate. That follows a 12.1% drop in the prior month.

Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment drops sharply in February as inflation worries soar. Sentiment gauge falls to 67.8, the lowest reading since July. The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell to 67.8 in a preliminary February reading, down from 71.1 in the prior month and the lowest reading since July.

Unemployment

Turns out the U.S. labor market really did perk up toward the end of 2024, a fresh government update shows. And that means Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely far off. The number of new jobs created in December was raised to 307,000 from a previous 256,000. And November’s employment increase was lifted to 261,000 from 212,000.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07% with the current rate at 6.05%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.06% with the current rate at 6.89%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.39%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.41%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 219,000 compared to the expected claims of 214,000. The prior week landed at 208,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week, the CPI and PPI reports will be released once again. With inflation expectations on the rise, there is even some speculation about a potential rate increase.

The previous week’s reins were held by the Federal Reserve’s Rate Decision and also the preferred inflation indicator, the PCE Index. With the PCE Index coming in well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, it suggests that rate cuts may be postponed much longer this year than initially anticipated.

Looking ahead, the upcoming week features the CPI and PPI inflation data reports, making for a busy schedule. However, this week’s reports are relatively limited in terms of significant market impact. The most notable releases include Unemployment Data and U.S. Wages, both of which will complement the inflation data to provide a broader outlook on the economy’s trajectory. Additionally, the Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Credit reports may offer insight into consumer conditions amid a changing administration and ongoing inflation. Notably, inflation has had a strong impact on markets such as eggs and livestock poultry, which have reached all-time high prices in the past decade.

PCE Index

The PCE index rose 0.3% last month, the government said Friday, to mark the biggest increase since last April. The increase in inflation in the past year was at a seven-month high of 2.6%, up from 2.4% in the prior month.

FOMC Rate Decision

In a widely anticipated move, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee left unchanged its overnight borrowing rate in a range between 4.25%-4.5%.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% with the current rate at 6.12%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% with the current rate at 6.95%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.46%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.48%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 207,000 compared to the expected claims of 228,000. The prior week landed at 223,000.

What’s Ahead

CPI and PPI reports are set to release tomorrow along with Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Credit reports.

With the holiday of the previous week in addition to an extremely light release week, only the Consumer Sentiment report is weighing in on the lending markets. With both the inflation reports showing inflation cooling off, there is still some optimism about where the Federal Reserve will take things. This optimism is only cooled by the uncertainty the new presidency will bring. Many markets have responded in kind, with lending partners showing a trend of increasing rates and other markets preparing for uncertainty. Within the next few months, we will see how the new administration intends to handle monetary policy. This will have a greater impact than the Federal Reserve on the direction things will be headed in the future. Next week will be the first FOMC Rate Decision of the year, with many being optimistic about a potential rate cut with the recent inflation data.

Consumer Sentiment (Univ. of Michigan)

Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in six months, edging down 4% from December. While assessments of personal finances inched up for the fifth consecutive month, all other index components pulled back. Indeed, sentiment declines were broad-based and seen across incomes, wealth, and age groups. Buying conditions for durables softened but remained about 30% better than six months ago amid persistent views that purchasing now would avoid future price increases. 

Despite reporting stronger incomes this month, concerns about unemployment rose; about 47% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest since the pandemic recession. January’s data closed on Inauguration Day, and consumers of all political leanings will continue to refine their views as Trump’s policies are clarified and implemented.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.11% with the current rate at 6.16%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08% with the current rate at 6.96%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.54%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.55%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 223,000 compared to the expected claims of 221,000. The prior week landed at 217,000.

What’s Ahead

The FOMC rate decision is scheduled for next week, while the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE Index, will be released at the end of the week. Additionally, the Personal Income and Spending report, a key forward indicator of future economic trends, is also set to be released. Finally, the Chicago Manufacturing PMI data is expected to be published.