25
Jan
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 25, 2021

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - January 25, 2021Last week’s economic reporting included readings from the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, along with Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. The National Association of Realtors® reported on sales of previously-owned homes; weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Home Builders’ Housing Market Index Falls in January

Homebuilder confidence in housing market conditions fell three points to an index reading of 83 in January. The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index expected a reading of 85 for January as compared to December’s index reading of 86. Increasing covid-19 cases and rising materials costs caused builder confidence to fall as builder concerns rose.

The NAHB Housing Market Index remained strong as any reading over 50 indicates positive builder sentiment toward housing markets. Component readings for January’s Housing Market Index also fell; builder confidence in current market conditions fell two points to an index reading of 90. Homebuilder confidence in market conditions for the next six months also fell two points to 83. Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new housing developments dropped five points to an index reading of 68. Readings of more than 50 for buyer traffic were rare until the covid-19 pandemic started.

Conflicting factors impacted home builder confidence readings. Home sales rose as urban homeowners sought new and larger homes in the suburbs and rural areas, labor shortages, and rising materials expenses worried home builders.

Housing Starts and Building Permits Rose in December

The Commerce Department reported a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 1.67 million housing starts as compared to November’s reading of 1.547 million starts. Building permits issued rose in December with 1.709 million permits issued annually as compared to November’s reading of 1.635 million housing starts.

The National Association of Realtors® reported 6.76 million sales of previously-owned homes sold as of December on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Home sales are increasing although demand exceeds available inventory and home prices continue to rise.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Lower

Mortgage rates fell last week with the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages two basis points lower on average at 2.77 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.21 percent and were two basis points lower. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.80 percent and 32 basis points lower. 

First-time jobless claims fell to 900,000 claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 926,000 new claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims were also lower last week with 5.05 million continued claims filed as compared to 5.18 million claims filed the previous week. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the FHFA House Price Index, and the Federal Reserve’s Statement from its Federal Open Market Committee. Monthly readings on new home sales and consumer sentiment will also be published. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

04
Jan
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 4, 2021

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - January 4, 2021Last week’s economic news included reports from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and data on pending home sales. No weekly data on jobless claims were released due to the New Year holiday, but Freddie Mac did issue its weekly report on average mortgage rates.

Case-Shiller Reports Home Prices Reached 6-Year High In October

U.S. home prices reached their highest level in six years according to Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index. Home prices rose by 8.40 percent year-over-year in October as compared to September’s home price growth reading of 7.00 percent. Demand for homes rose during the Covid pandemic as families moved from congested urban areas to less crowded suburbs and rural areas. Ongoing shortages of available homes fueled rising home prices as mortgage rates fell to record lows. 

Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index showed a 7.90 percent year-over-year growth rate in October as compared to September’s home price growth rate of 6.60 percent.  Phoenix, Arizona led the 20-City Index with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 12.70  percent. Seattle, Washington posted a year-over-year home price growth rate of 11.70 percent, and San Diego, California followed closely with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 11.60 percent.

Cities posting the lowest home price growth rates in October were New York, New York with 6.00 percent home price growth; Chicago, Illinois posted year-over-year home price growth of 6.30 percent and Las Vegas Nevada home prices grew by 6.40 percent year-over-year,

Analysts did not expect home price growth to slow any time soon. Relocation and the anticipated retreat of the pandemic as vaccines become available were expected to fuel home price growth as the economy improves.

Pending Home Sales Fall in November, Average Mortgage Rates Mixed

The National Association of Realtors® reported  -2.60 percent a drop in pending home sales in November; this was the third straight month of falling pending home sales. Pending home sales are sales for which purchase contracts are signed but have not closed.

Mortgage Rates Mixed

Freddie Mac reported mixed average mortgage rates last week. The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 2.67 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped by two basis points to 2.17 percent and rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages dropped by eight basis points to 2.71 percent on average. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on construction spending, minutes from the Fed’s FOMC meeting, and payroll data for public and private-sector jobs. The national unemployment rate will also be released. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims are also expected.

21
Dec
By First Rate Financial Group
Financial Reports

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 21, 2020

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - December 21, 2020Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings from the National Association of Home Builders and a statement from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Falls In December

Homebuilder confidence in market conditions for single-family dropped by four points in December to an index reading of 86.  December’s reading was the second-highest on record after November’s reading. Component readings of the Housing Market Index also dropped. Builder confidence in current market conditions fell to 92 as confidence in single-family home sales within the next six months fell to an index reading of 85. Homebuilder confidence in buyer traffic in new single-family developments dropped to 73; buyer traffic readings rarely exceeded 50 until recent months.

Regional Housing Market Index readings were also lower than in November. The Northeast, Midwest, and South reported readings three points lower than in November. The Western region’s reading dipped by two points month-over-month.

Fed Holds Key Rate Steady

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced no change to the current federal funds rate range of 0.00 to 0.25 percent. Citing severe economic challenges caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the FOMC statement indicated that economic forecasts would be subject to the course of the virus and related impacts on public health, the economy, and labor markets.

The Committee stated its monetary policy would be flexible in response to the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and an inflation rate of two percent. The inflation rate has fallen short of the Fed’s objective of two percent; FOMC members amended the inflation rate goal to two percent or higher to compensate for the impact of repeated readings under the two percent mandate.

Mortgage Rates Hit Record Low; Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported new record lows for average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged four basis points lower at 2.67 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.21 percent and were five basis points lower. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was unchanged at 2.79 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims rose to 885,000 first-time claims filed as compared to 862,000 new claims filed the prior week. 5.51 million ongoing jobless claims were filed; last week’s reading was lower than the prior week’s reading of 5.78 ongoing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, inflation, and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.