Jobless Claims

Following the release of key data such as the FOMC rate decision and CPI and PPI inflation reports, only the PCE Index reports remained to set the course, which are coming in well within expectations. The Consumer Confidence Report is also a significant concern since it influences broader economic decisions when consumers hesitate to spend, usually due to rising living costs.

Consumer Confidence Report

Consumers were slightly more optimistic about the economy at the end of June, but the effects of high inflation in the past few years still weighed on their minds. The final reading of the consumer sentiment index rose to 68.2 in June from a preliminary 65.6 earlier in the month, but it’s still the lowest level in seven months. The index also stands well below a prepandemic peak of 101. Although Americans think inflation will ease, they say high inflation and slower income growth have worried them more about their finances, according to the University of Michigan survey.

PCE Index

The Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE index was unchanged last month, the government said Friday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a flat reading. If inflation continues to recede in the next few months, the Fed could lay the groundwork to cut U.S. interest rates in the fall. The increase in inflation in the past 12 months slipped to 2.6% from 2.7%. The Fed is aiming to bring inflation down to 2% a year.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.03% with the current rate at 6.16%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.01% with the current rate at 6.86%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing an increase by 0.02% for this week. Current rates at 6.51%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing an increase by 0.02% for this week. Current rates at 6.52%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 233,000 compared to the expected claims of 235,000. The prior week was landed at 239,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week, we anticipate ISM Manufacturing data, U.S. trade deficits, and overall U.S. unemployment figures to provide further insights into the direction of the economy. Despite being less comprehensive reports, they often serve as early indicators of inflation trends which are a crucial focus for all stakeholders.

Currently, the Retail Sales Report is the sole report that has weight. With the passage of more optimistic inflation data reports, retail sales coming in slightly under expectations will have little to no bearing on the overall outlook. Given the last major reports indicating the economy’s health and state of inflation, there is more optimism toward a potential rate cut this year. Lending partners have still been quick to continue cutting rates.

Consumer Price Index

Sales at U.S. retailers barely rose in May, suggesting Americans are feeling the weight of lingering inflation and high interest rates. Sales edged up 0.1% last month. They had been forecast to rise 0.2%, based on a Wall Street Journal poll of economists.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.04% with the current rate at 6.13%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.08% with the current rate at 6.87%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing an increase by 0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.49%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing an increase by 0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.50%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 238,000 compared to the expected claims of 235,000. The prior week landed at 243,000.

What’s Ahead

One of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation data points will be released next week in the PCE Prices Report, followed closely by the Chicago PMI and the Univ. Michigan Consumer Sentiment reports. 

A welcome and unexpected data release for both the PPI and CPI shows inflation expectations coming in lower than expected. The positive news was somewhat mitigated by the hawkish FOMC rate decision that also took place during the same week. Still, there is more optimism given that the data releases in the past 30 days have shown signs of inflation coming under control. At the very least, it suggests that the Federal Reserve’s policy to keep inflation under control has been effective. As a result, lending partners have quickly cut rates again after the meeting this week.

Consumer Price Index

The cost of consumer goods and services were unchanged in May for the first time in almost two years, suggesting the resurgence in inflation earlier in the year might be petering out. The flat reading in the Consumer Price Index last month was below the forecast for a 0.1% increase, based on a poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal.

Produce Price Index

U.S. wholesale prices fell in May for the second time in three months (thanks partly to lower gas prices), perhaps another sign that the upturn in inflation earlier this year is fading. The Producer Price Index dropped 0.2% last month, the government said Thursday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast an increase of 0.1%.

FOMC Rate Decision

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was tight-lipped at his press conference Wednesday, having been stung previously by too much optimism. The Federal Reserve remained hawkish throughout the conference and maintained current interest rates.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.12% with the current rate at 6.17%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.04% with the current rate at 6.95%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a decrease by -0.20% for this week. Current rates at 6.44%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a decrease by -0.20% for this week. Current rates at 6.45%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 242,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 229,000.

What’s Ahead

The proceeding weeks for FOMC rate decisions and inflation data reports are typically light. Next week has a higher-than-expected amount of influential releases. The lineup includes Retail Sales and the official S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI numbers, giving us a clear indicator of the state of manufacturing for the U.S.