25
Feb
By support
Market Outlook

Case-Shiller: Rising Home Prices Boost Inflation

Case Shiller Rising Home Prices Boost Inflation

December home prices rose by 0.10 percent according to the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. The composite report tracks home prices in 20 U.S. cities. December’s results boosted home prices by 4.50 percent year-over-year, which is approximately double the inflation rate for 2014. Analysts note that the overall reading was less significant than individual readings for the 20 cities included in the report.

Regional Home Prices Suggest Disparity in Housing Recovery

The top three month-to-month home price increases for cities surveyed were led by Miami, Florida with an increase of 0.70 percent, Home prices rose by 0.50 percent in Denver, Colorado, and by 0.50 percent in San Francisco, California.

Chicago, Illinois posted a month-to-month loss of -0.90 percent; Cleveland, Ohio followed with a loss of -0.50 percent, and Las Vegas, Nevada and Minneapolis, Minnesota were tied with monthly losses of -0.30 percent for home prices.

Winter weather conditions and the holidays can dampen demand for homes; it’s worthwhile to note that three of the cities posting the largest month-to-month losses are located in cold winter climates.

Month-to-month readings for home prices are typically more volatile; the corresponding year-over-year readings provide a more accurate reading of real estate trends in specific cities. Nine cities posted month-to-month gains for home prices, while six cities posted lower home prices from November to December.

San Francisco Leads Year-over-Year Home Price Growth

San Francisco, California led year-over-year home price growth with a reading of 9.30 percent. Home prices grew by 8.40 percent in Miami, Florida. Denver, Colorado home prices grew by 8.10 percent year-over-year in December.

The three cities showing the least amount of home price growth year-over-year were Chicago, Illinois with a reading of 1.30 percent, Cleveland, Ohio and Washington, D.C. were tied with year-over-year readings of 1.30 percent growth in home prices year-over-year.

Home prices are growing more slowly in the North and Midwest regions, while home prices continue to grow fastest in the Southeast and Western regions.

Home prices in the cities surveyed have increased by 29 percent since the March 2012 low, but remain 16 percent below their July 2006 peak. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index measures home prices using a three-month rolling average, while other home price reports base their readings on monthly sales. Case-Shiller’s year-over-year reading of 4.50 percent for December of 2015 closely approached CoreLogic’s reading of 5.00 percent home price growth year-over-year.

While increasing home prices are good news for homeowners, higher home prices represent an obstacle for moderate income and first time home buyers, who are also impacted by strict mortgage credit standards. As the peak home buying season approaches, increased demand for homes could drive home prices higher.

23
Feb
By support
Market Outlook

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 23, 2015

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week Feburary 23 2015

Last week’s housing related reports included the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index for February, The Commerce Department’s report on Housing Starts for January and Freddie Mac’s weekly report on average mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of January’s FOMC meeting, which indicated that FOMC members are in no hurry to raise the target federal funds rate. The details:

Home Builder Confidence, Housing Starts Impacted by Winter Weather

The NAHB Housing Market Index for February fell from January’s reading of 57 to 55. Analysts expected a reading of 59. This was the lowest reading since October, but February’s reading remains above the benchmark of 50. Readings exceeding 50 indicate that more home builders are confident about housing market conditions than not.

According to the NAHB, harsh weather contributed to lower builder confidence in February. NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said that low mortgage rates, increasing affordability and improving job markets are helping home buyers.

The NAHB Housing Market Index is calculated based on three components. Builder confidence dropped by one point to a reading of 61 for current housing market conditions. Not surprisingly, the winter weather caused buyer foot traffic to drop five points to a reading of 39. A gauge of housing market conditions in the next six months was unchanged.

Regional readings showed declines in three of four regions: The Northeast saw a one-point drop to 46; the Midwest and South dropped by two points to readings of 54 and 57. The Western region gained two points for a reading of 68.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that January’s Housing Starts dropped from 1.09 million in December to 1.07 million in January; the reading for January matched analysts’ expectations.

Weekly jobless claims provided some good news; they dropped from the prior week’s reading of 304,000 new claims to 283,000 new claims. The expected reading was 290,000 new jobless claims.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Points Unchanged

Freddie Mac reported that average mortgage rates rose last week. The rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose by seven basis points to 3.76 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage increased by six basis points to 3.05 percent and the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was unchanged at 2.97 percent. Discount points were unchanged at 0.6 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.50 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

What’s Ahead

Next week’s scheduled economic news includes several reports related to housing. New and existing home sales reports will be released along with the Case-Shiller Composite Housing Market reports. FHFA will release its House Price Index Report and Fed Chair Janet Yellen is set to testify before Congress. Reports on Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence are also scheduled along with weekly reports on jobless claims and mortgage rates.

17
Feb
By support
Market Outlook

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 16, 2015

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week Feburary 16 2015

Last week’s economic news included an index of labor market conditions provided by the Federal Reserve, a report on small business sentiment, and a report from the Labor Department on job openings. Weekly jobless claims, Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates report and a report on Consumer Sentiment rounded out the week. The details:

Labor Market Conditions, Small Business Index Reports Fall

According to the January reading for a labor index report released by the Federal Reserve, labor market conditions declined from December’s reading of 7.3 to January’s reading of 4.9. This index is based on 19 economic indicators and January’s reading was the lowest since September. The National Foundation for Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its index of small business sentiment fell to 97.9 in January as compared to December’s reading of 100.4. Analysts said that this report reflected less optimism about business conditions and sales growth rather than concerns over spending and hiring plans.

In other labor–related news, the Labor Department reported that job openings rose to 5.03 million in December; this was 3.70 percent higher than November’s reading and represented a year-over-year increase in job openings of 28.50 percent. In contrast, all hiring for 2014 increased by 12.50 percent, which suggested that employers may be having trouble finding employees with needed job skills.

Jobless Claims Rise, but Four Week Average Shows Drop in New Claims

According to the Labor Department’s weekly Jobless Claims report, 304,000 new unemployment claims were filed, which once again positioned new jobless claims over the key benchmark of 300,000 new jobless claims filed. Analysts expected a reading of 296,000 new jobless claims based on the prior week’s reading of 279,000 new claims. To put this in perspective, new jobless claims have fallen by 3250 claims over the past four weeks to a reading of 289,750 new claims. Economists say that the four-week average is a more accurate measure of developing trends, as week-to-week readings can be volatile.

Mortgage Rates Rise

Last week’s only scheduled mortgage-related news was Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of average U.S. mortgage rates. Rates were higher with the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage higher by 10 basis points at 3.60 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose by eight basis points to 2.99 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage jumped to 2.97 percent from the previous week’s average of 2.82 percent. Average discount points were 0.60 percent for 30 and 15-year fixed rate mortgages and averaged 0.50percent for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage.

February’s Consumer Sentiment Index dipped as fears of rising inflation caused consumer sentiment to dip from January’s reading of 98.1 and expectations of February’s reading at 98.5; unfortunately, February’s actual reading fell short at 93.6. February’s reading was a three-month low after January’s reading hit an 11-year high. Fears of growing inflation were noted as an influence on the drop in consumer sentiment; fuel prices are rising, which will contribute to rising inflation.

What’s Ahead

No economic reports were scheduled Monday due to the President’s Day holiday. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) releases its housing market index report on Tuesday, Housing Starts will be released Wednesday along with the minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting. Weekly jobless claims, Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates survey and Leading Economic Indicators round out this week’s scheduled reports.