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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 20th, 2020

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week -March 9th, 2020Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings on home builder sentiment, housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims were also released

NAHB: Homebuilder Confidence Crashes as Coronavirus Impacts Construction

Homebuilder sentiment concerning housing market conditions dropped significantly in April according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index.

April’s index reading of 30 was the largest month-to-month drop recorded since the Housing Market Index started 30 years ago. Homebuilder confidence was 42 points lower than the March reading of 72 and was the lowest reading since June 2012.

Index readings over 50 indicate that most builders are confident in current market conditions.

Sub-index readings also fell considerably in April; builder confidence in current market conditions dropped from 79 to 36. Builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months dipped to an index reading of 36 in April as compared to the March reading of 75.

Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new single-family housing developments dropped from an index reading of 56 in March to a reading of 13 in April; builder sentiment readings about buyer traffic don’t usually exceed an index reading of 50 but had done so in recent months. Homebuilders also said that federal assistance for builders wasn’t distributed consistently;  Builders need federal financial help to maintain payrolls and other expenses.

Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued dropped in March. Housing starts progressed at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.216 million starts as compared to February’s pace of 1.564 million housing starts.

Analysts expected a March reading of 1.290 million housing starts. Building permits issued were lower at 1.353 million permits issued as compared to 1.452 million permits issued on an annual basis in February. Analysts expected a March reading of 1.250 million building permits issued.

Mortgage Rates Near All-Time Lows as Initial Jobless Claims Slow

Freddie Mac reported mixed results for mortgage rates last week; rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.31 percent and were two basis points lower. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.80 percent and were three basis points higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages fell by six basis points and averaged 3.34 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims were lower last week but remained much higher than readings reported before the COVID-19 outbreak. 5.25 million initial claims were filed, which surpassed expectations of 5 million new claims filed. 6.60 million claims were filed the prior week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic releases include readings on new and existing home sales, consumer sentiment and weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

The Narrowing Gap Between Renting And Buying A Home In The US

According to data compiled by Realtor.com in the fourth quarter of 2019, it is still more affordable overall to rent versus buy a home — but just barely. The median monthly mortgage payment at the end of 2019 was $1,600, while the median monthly rent payment was $1,319. This is largely due to steadily-increasing rates, rising home prices, and near-record-low mortgage rates.

The Narrowing Gap Between Renting And Buying A Home In The USThe Realtor.com study looked at 593 counties across the country. As compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, the average monthly cost of renting a home increased 4%, up from $1,254, while the average monthly cost of homeownership actually declined 1%, falling from $1,658.

These numbers represent exactly 30% of a homeowner’s gross income and 25% for renters, based on median household income. 

A Turning Tide

In a stunning 84% of the 593 counties that were part of the study, renting is less expensive than buying. The average home price in these areas is 260% higher than the national median, while rent prices average about 79% more than the national median. 

Interestingly though, 26 of the 593 counties experienced the opposite for the first time ever: It became more affordable to purchase a home than to rent, even if only by a narrow margin.

The largest metropolitan areas in which homeownership is more economical than renting now include Bronx County, New York; the greater Cleveland area; Columbia, South Carolina, and the surrounding areas; Indianapolis, Indiana; and Camden County, New Jersey, which includes Philadelphia, as well as cities in Maryland and Delaware.

In 16% of the counties analyzed, buying a home is less expensive monthly than renting, which is up from 12% in 2018. 

On the other end of the spectrum, several large counties made the switch from being more affordable to buy a home to more affordable to rent. The top five include the Wichita Falls, Texas, area; Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pennsylvania; Luzerne County, Pennsylvania; the Greensboro, North Carolina metro area; and Craven County, North Carolina. 

With the costs of homeownership becoming more favorable over the past year, the gap between renting and buying a home is more narrow than it ever has been in the U.S. If you are in the market for a new home, be sure to contact your trusted real estate or mortgage professional.

What Should I Consider Most When Buying A Home This Year?

What Should I Consider Most When Buying A Home In 2020There are two times when it is best to buy a home. When you have to buy one and when you can afford to buy one. In general, owning a home is better than renting one because you are building up equity for yourself, instead of throwing your money away by helping the landlord buy the property with your rent money.

Best- And Worst-Case Scenario Planning

Be prepared for owning a home, especially if this will be your first time as a homebuyer. There is a natural tendency to stretch finances to the breaking point when wanting to own a home.

Try to be patient and have a contingency plan for what would happen if you lose your job or if your significant other loses his or her job if you are buying a home with the help of another income.

A surprising piece of counter-intuitive advice is NOT to use all of your savings as a down payment, even if you have to pay more for the mortgage. Instead, hold back three to six months of mortgage payments in your savings to use in case there is an unexpected job loss or problem.

That will give you enough time to recover from a temporary problem without having to worry about having enough money to make the mortgage payments.

Keep Emotions Under Control

Try not to let your emotions override practical considerations. Most people trade-up from the first home that they buy. A house need not be “perfect”; however, you want it to be in a decent condition to avoid having large expenses right after buying it, unless you are a fixer-upper type and know what you are doing.

Seller’s Or Buyer’s Market

It is useful to know whether the area you want to buy a home is a seller’s or a buyer’s market. In a seller’s market, there may be many buyers for fewer sellers. In that caseyou will need to be more competitive in your approach when buying a house.

One easy way to tell if the area is a seller’s market is to ask your REALTOR® to find out the median number of days that homes are on the market for sale and the percentage of the asking price that the average home sells for.

Don’t be surprised to learn in a seller’s market that homes stay listed only for a short time, and they sell for nearly the asking price. Having a pre-approved lending commitment before you go looking for a home in a seller’s market is one way to make your offer(s) stronger.

Summary

Take time when buying a home to do some market research first. Get your loan commitment approved, before shopping for a home. Make looking for a home to buy an adventure. Avoid stretching yourself to a financial breaking point and plan to stay in your home for a few years, at least, before you trade-up.

If you are in the market for a new home or interested in listing your current property, be sure to set an appointment with your trusted real estate professional.