What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 6, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 6, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings from S&P Case-Shiller home price indices, data on pending home sales, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

S&P Case-Shiller: December Home Price Growth Slows in 20-City Index

Home price growth slowed in December according to S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index. Home prices rose by 4.60 percent year-over-year as compared to November’s year-over-year home price growth rate of 6.80 percent. The top three cities for home price growth in the 20-City Index were Miami, Florida, Tampa, Florida, and Atlanta, Georgia.

Former leading cities for home price growth have fallen to the bottom of the 20-Cities Home Price Index. Year-over-year home prices fell by -4.20 percent in San Francisco, California, and were – 1.80 percent lower in Seattle, Washington. The slowest pace of home price growth was reported in Portland, Oregon with a year-over-year home price growth rate of + 1.10 percent.

In related news, the Commerce Department reported construction spending rose by 5.70 percent year-over-year in January. Although analysts expected month-to-month construction spending to rise by 0.30 percent in January, spending fell by -0.10 percent as compared to December’s positive reading of 0.70 percent growth in month-to-month construction spending.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 15 basis points to 6.65 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 13 basis points on average. Initial jobless claims fell below 200,000 first-time jobless claims for the seventh consecutive week with a reading of  190,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the expected reading of 197,000 initial claims filed and the previous week’s revised reading of 192,000 claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on job growth, national unemployment, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims. Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to testify before House and Senate committees next week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will attend and will also testify. 

What Are The Benefits And Drawbacks Of Putting 20 Percent Down On A Home Purchase?

Should You Put 20 Percent Down On Your Home Purchase?Several generations ago, lenders required home buyers to have a 20 percent down payment in order to get a mortgage. While there were a few options out there for people who couldn’t save this substantial amount, the reality was that for the majority of people, the 20 percent down was a requirement.

It was the way to show that you were financially responsible enough for homeownership. And it was a strong way that the banks felt secure in making a home loan.

Today, however, homebuyers have many options available to them as they shop for a new home, and those mortgage options mean that the 20 percent down payment is no longer as much of a requirement. For most buyers, especially those who do not have the equity of an existing home to help with their purchase, the 20 percent down payment is not even a possibility.

Yet for those who can do so, putting 20 percent down carries some benefits worth considering. Here is a closer look at when the large down payment makes sense, and what the potential drawbacks are that buyers should consider.

How The 20 Percent Down Payment Helps

When it is possible for the buyer to save enough, the 20 percent down payment does have some benefits that are worth considering. First, when you are able to save 20 percent, you can get a mortgage that has no private mortgage insurance or similar fees. Because lenders consider a borrower with less than 20 percent for the down payment to be higher risk, they charge additional fees to serve as insurance on these loans.

Putting 20 percent down also means you are borrowing less. Because every dollar you borrow will be charged interest, the less you borrow the lower your repayment costs should be over the life of the loan. If you have the ability to save 20 percent, this is a benefit worth considering.

The Drawbacks Of 20 Percent Down

While saving 20 percent does have some benefits, it also has drawbacks that you must also consider. First, 20 percent of a home loan is a significant amount of money. On a modestly priced $100,000 house, that means you have to save $20,000. For the average home buyer, this represents years of saving. And you could be giving up years of price appreciation on the home that you could have purchased earlier by using one of the other financing options.

Also, if you are putting all of that money down as your down payment, you may find yourself cash strapped for other home buying costs, like new furniture or closing costs on your mortgage. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau warns that this can be a significant downside, especially for first-time buyers who have a lot of expenses as they make the move into their first homes.

Many people find themselves digging into their other investments, like their 401(k), to come up with the money for the down payment. When mortgage interest rates are low, this can be an unwise move. Paying a bit more in interest over the life of a mortgage is often better than creating a serious financial bind for your future needs. Digging into your retirement also means you are not getting that vital compounding interest.

Finally, saving 20 percent often means you can’t buy a home quite as quickly. Since home prices historically tend to rise, not fall, the longer you wait, the more you may spend on your home. If home prices rise by 5 percent a year, which is fairly standard, waiting two years to purchase the home means $10,000 in extra costs for a $100,000 home. The higher purchase price counters any savings you may have when you put down 20 percent.

Can You Buy With Less Than 20 Percent Down?

So can you buy a home with less than 20 percent down? The answer to that question is yes, and often it makes more financial sense to do so. In fact, according to Freddie Mac, 40 percent of homebuyers in today’s markets are making down payments of less than 10 percent. So if you are going to buy a home without saving the 20 percent, what are your options?

If you have strong credit, many lenders are still offering piggyback loans. These loans allow you to take out a smaller loan for part of your down payment, then a traditional loan for the rest of the purchase price. You may still need about 5 percent of your own money to put down on the purchase. Then you can work with your lender to borrow 15 percent with a smaller, and many times shorter-term loan, and the remainder with a conventional mortgage.

Down payment assistance is another option to consider. These programs, which are available through non-profit organizations or government-run programs, give homeowners a hand in coming up with the down payment they need to purchase the home.

Finally, consider the low down payment options that are out there. USDA loans, VA loans, FHA loans and similar loan products are designed for those with just a little bit to put down on the home. The FHA loan, for example, is a government-backed loan that requires just 3.5 percent down on the home.

Forbes indicates it is even possible to get a conventional loan with as little as 3 percent down. In some instances, like the USDA home loan program, you can even buy a home with no down payment.

While these home loans do have additional costs, like the funding fee for the VA loan or private mortgage insurance for conventional low down payment loans, they give you the ability to buy now without 20 percent down so you can start enjoying the benefits of homeownership sooner.

When buying a home, getting sound financial advice is always wise. Whether you choose to put down a large amount on your home or take advantage of these different loan options to buy with a smaller amount down, make sure you weigh your options before making your choice.

S&P Case-Shiller: December Home Price Growth Slows

S&P Case-Shiller: December Home Price Growth SlowsHome price growth slowed in December according to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. Year-over-year home prices rose by 4.6 percent in December as compared to November’s reading of 6.8 percent growth. Rising mortgage rates caused home prices to dip as potential buyers delayed home purchases and demand for homes fell.

Craig J. Lazzara, managing director of S&P Dow Jones Indices, said: “The prospect of stable, or higher mortgage rates means that mortgage financing remains a headwind for home prices, while economic weakness, including the possibility of a recession, may also constrain potential buyers. Mr. Lazzara concluded: “Given these prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment,  home prices may well continue to weaken.”

The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index fell by a seasonally-adjusted figure of -0.30 percent in December but rose by 5.80 percent year over year.

S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Index Shows Slowing Home Price Growth for December

Nationally home prices fell by -0.30 percent month-to-month and were 5.80 percent higher year-over-year.

Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index is widely used as a benchmark for U.S. home prices; December’s top three cities for rising home prices were Miami, Florida with 15.90  percent year-over-year home price growth; Tampa, Florida followed with 13.9 percent home price growth and Atlanta, Georgia reported 10.4 percent year-over-year home price growth in December.  The 20-City Index reported 4.60 percent year-over-year home price growth as compared to November’s reading of 6.80 percent year-over-year home price growth.

Home prices fell the most in formerly hot markets; in San Francisco, California home prices dropped by -4.20 percent year-over-year and home prices fell by -1.80 percent in Seattle, Washington. Portland, Oregon had the lowest pace of home price growth with a year-over-year reading of 1.10 percent.

In related news, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported home price growth data for homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Home prices rose 8.40 percent year-over-year between the fourth quarters of 2021 and 2022.

Analysts said that lower home prices were caused by rising mortgage rates and lower demand for homes caused by buyers’ concerns about a possible recession. Limited supplies of available homes helped reduce potential losses caused by less buyer demand for homes. High mortgage rates, competition with cash buyers, relatively high home prices, and slim supplies of available homes continue to present challenges to first-time and moderate-income home buyers.